Who will win the WC?

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Who will win the WC?

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Total Votes : 32

Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by BarrileteCosmico on Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:10 am

@Zizou wrote:I did vote for germany when WC started... (call me insane) and I did think Holland - Germany for the Final...
yet, my greatest hero of all times (Nate Silver) predicts Germany Argentinia with a win of Germany...

He also said Brazil had a 65% chance of winning against Germany. Doubt any of his 10,000 simulations had quite this result in mind...

In fairness he gives ARG-NED basically 50/50 odds, which sounds fine to me.

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Lupi on Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:33 am

If the Dutch win the World Cup this year, they will have beaten each of the teams against whom they lost a World Cup Finals in reverse chronological order:
Spain (2010)
Argentina (1978)
Germany (1974)

please save us Netherlands from NR and MFB.Amen
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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Zizou on Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:49 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Zizou wrote:I did vote for germany when WC started... (call me insane) and I did think Holland - Germany for the Final...
yet, my greatest hero of all times (Nate Silver) predicts Germany Argentinia with a win of Germany...

He also said Brazil had a 65% chance of winning against Germany. Doubt any of his 10,000 simulations had quite this result in mind...

In fairness he gives ARG-NED basically 50/50 odds, which sounds fine to me.


He did?

Quote from Five Thrity eight:

Our forecast, which gives Brazil a 54 percent chance of treating its home fans to a title, doesn’t account for these player absences. This article will attempt to measure their impact and recalculate the numbers.

That was before Neymar was out!

here is the up to date statistik...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

to my Knowledge Nate Silver never failed!


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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Zizou on Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:52 am

yet van persie is so much better looking than Messi...
I would love Holland - Germany for the final...

just got a message on FB from a old friend saying:

" I met a Dutch Guy at the Gas Station - he said: oh, you are playing Brazil - good luck - we will be playing Argentinia tomorrow - and I said: yeah... we'll be playing them on Sunday"

loved that!

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Zizou on Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:54 am

@Lupi wrote:If the Dutch win the World Cup this year, they will have beaten each of the teams against whom they lost a World Cup Finals in reverse chronological order:
Spain (2010)
Argentina (1978)
Germany (1974)

please save us Netherlands from NR and MFB.Amen


They won't

if they get passed Argentinia (which I highly doubt) we will NOT let them take the "Thing"...

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Peccadillo on Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:10 am

Today was as much of a loss by Brazil as a win by Germany. The score-line doesn't really mean anything. Germany have a recent history of not backing up their big margin wins.

I still have this baseless suspicion Argentina will win the whole damn thing. Baseless because its hard to predict how the argentine midfield and defence will handle their real first test of the tournament, without Di Maria what's more. Just feel Higuain/Aguero/Messi will be too much for the Dutch to handle.
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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by BarrileteCosmico on Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:11 am

@Zizou wrote:He did?

Quote from Five Thrity eight:

Our forecast, which gives Brazil a 54 percent chance of treating its home fans to a title, doesn’t account for these player absences. This article will attempt to measure their impact and recalculate the numbers.

That was before Neymar was out!

here is the up to date statistik...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

to my Knowledge Nate Silver never failed!


54% of winning the title, 73% of winning against Germany.

Then he adjusted for Neymar and TS's exit and gave them a 65% of winning against Germany.

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/mccann-gamestowatch-7-8.png

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/world-cup-semifinal-crib-notes-brazil-vs-germany/

He is now calling it the most shocking result in world cup history, but I think it's likelier his model was just flawed and didn't account for the possibility of teams getting demoralized.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/

Moral of the story: the betting markets are still the best predictor of future results, even though they have flaws, rather than statistical rankings.

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Don't call me James on Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:15 am

@Don't call me James wrote:I think Germany will win it.


Proud

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Zizou on Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:00 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Zizou wrote:He did?

Quote from Five Thrity eight:

Our forecast, which gives Brazil a 54 percent chance of treating its home fans to a title, doesn’t account for these player absences. This article will attempt to measure their impact and recalculate the numbers.

That was before Neymar was out!

here is the up to date statistik...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

to my Knowledge Nate Silver never failed!


54% of winning the title, 73% of winning against Germany.

Then he adjusted for Neymar and TS's exit and gave them a 65% of winning against Germany.

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/mccann-gamestowatch-7-8.png

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/world-cup-semifinal-crib-notes-brazil-vs-germany/

He is now calling it the most shocking result in world cup history, but I think it's likelier his model was just flawed and didn't account for the possibility of teams getting demoralized.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/

Moral of the story: the betting markets are still the best predictor of future results, even though they have flaws, rather than statistical rankings.


Thanks for correction...
interesting!

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by Great Leader Sprucenuce on Wed Jul 09, 2014 4:40 pm

Natalie Portman wrote:I think Germany-Dutch final will be a lot more closer, than Germany-Argie.

Germant are just so damn good at exposing these South American holes in their naive tactics. They did it 4 years ago to Arg, and today to Brazil.  With Di Maria out as well, I fear for Argentina's midfield vs. Germany.

plus, Arg vs. Brazil 3rd match place will be decent. so come on Holland !


Argentina's tactics seem more European than South American to me.

In fact watching them against Belgium gave off a very Italian feel to me, its not like Maradona's team where it was 5 attackers plus the back 4 and Mascherano.

This team seems to be Messi plus 10 workhorses, even Higuain works hard for the team, i don't think Germany would cut them open like they did to Brazil.

Mind you i never thought Brazil would either Laughing so we'll wait and see.

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by VendettaRed07 on Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:52 pm

l'd make a prediction, but l'm always wrong so it's cool

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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by messixaviesta on Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:28 pm

@RealGunner wrote:Argentina still for me.

Same here. Years ago I said it will be Lionel Messi's date with destiny. Now he just needs to make my words come true. Smile


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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by messixaviesta on Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:31 pm

@Lupi wrote:If the Dutch win the World Cup this year, they will have beaten each of the teams against whom they lost a World Cup Finals in reverse chronological order:
Spain (2010)
Argentina (1978)
Germany (1974)

Excellent point


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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by messixaviesta on Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:33 pm

Never before had it happened in a world cup that both the semi finals featured teams from a final of the past. Now even the final will do the same.


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Re: Who will win the WC?

Post by messixaviesta on Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:37 pm

@Zizou wrote:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

Wish I had seen this site earlier. It would have been fun to follow.


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Re: Who will win the WC?

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