Brexit: Should the UK stay or go?

Adit wrote:I can't believe how racist Britain has become. Looks like they have created some mini Nazi level atmosphere there..

And lol at the immigrants voting for these racists in support of no more "immigration" .. How ironic, first they will ban immigration then they will ask to deport the non British immigrants.

People have no long term view. Indians and Chinese voting for exit

Idiots.

Funnily enough, the group that most heavily supported Brexit was the silent generation, you know, the people who's lives were actually tangibly affected by the Nazis.
One of life's ironies I suppose.
Of course, it's extremely intellectually dishonest/shallow to rebrand patriotism as Nazism. No less offensive than calling homosexuals pedophiles.

Sorry, but when people throw the word nazi around so flippantly, I instantly think them a moron and can't take what they say seriously

Crack open a history book or watch a documentary about nazi Germany, discover the horrific atrocities committed to people by actual nazis. What constitutes a nazi nowadays? Having a differing political opinion on a subject? Wanting a change in your country? Eff off.

Lex wrote:Sorry, but when people throw the word nazi around so flippantly, I instantly think them a moron and can't take what they say seriously

Crack open a history book or watch a documentary about nazi Germany, discover the horrific atrocities committed to people by actual nazis. What constitutes a nazi nowadays? Having a differing political opinion on a subject? Wanting a change in your country? Eff off.

Oh but why did you have to call them morons?

Well, because that's what they are.

Why is the shadow government imploding? Because they didn't do enough to stop Brexit?

I think Labor establishment was always against Corbyn and they are using Brexit and his lukewarm defense of it as the pretext to get him out

Lex wrote:Well, because that's what they are.

Funny. I remember you a few pages back getting offended at me calling people who voted ignorantly for Brexit inbreds and idiots. Name calling only allowed when you're the one doing it, ehy?

BarrileteCosmico wrote:I think Labor establishment was always against Corbyn and they are using Brexit and his lukewarm defense of it as the pretext to get him out

Yea pretty much this.

Corbyn is one of the few left wing politicians who represents core labour values. Labour party who have tasted recent success based on centralist policies don't really like that. They either want someone centralist like Blair or a puppet like Ed Miliband who can be controlled easily.

Corbyn is a nice guy. And his party doesn't like that. There is a huge difference of opinion between the labour voters and the labour MPs. Voters want Corbyn to represent them. MPs don't.

I will never vote labour again if Corbyn is forced to resign. And Labour can forget about winning another election for the next 10 years if corbyn is out. No one is going to vote jokers like Hilary Benn or Tom watson

"Shame" called in Lords as UKIP bench call for EU nationals to be used as hostages in discussions with Brussels

https://twitter.com/LibDemLords/status/748164574445211648

RealGunner wrote:

BarrileteCosmico wrote:I think Labor establishment was always against Corbyn and they are using Brexit and his lukewarm defense of it as the pretext to get him out

Yea pretty much this.

Corbyn is one of the few left wing politicians who represents core labour values. Labour party who have tasted recent success based on centralist policies don't really like that. They either want someone centralist like Blair or a puppet like Ed Miliband who can be controlled easily.

Corbyn is a nice guy. And his party doesn't like that. There is a huge difference of opinion between the labour voters and the labour MPs. Voters want Corbyn to represent them. MPs don't.

I will never vote labour again if Corbyn is forced to resign. And Labour can forget about winning another election for the next 10 years if corbyn is out. No one is going to vote jokers like Hilary Benn or Tom watson

Labour almost has no choice other than force Corbyn to resign. Sure, he is very much a 70s left labour politician.. but Corbyn's core beliefs and political purity tests get in the way of him being able to do his job and be able to win political battles. He's too idealistic to make sacrifices or compromises where he needs to

He should have campaigned with Cameron to push for remain. Yet he really just stood by and watched it happen. He did not use his influence like he could have for the greater good. Show Labour and Conservative "united" on keeping the UK in the EU. He didn't and Now the UK is in a financial crisis, and labour is sitting with a party leader who is unelectable.

Let me just say from an American perspective. You cannot move the political spectrum to the left if you don't capture the center. Conservative has captured the center and is now pushing the country farther and farther to the right. You can't let them control the countries narrative. It's pretty much game over when that happens. If labour want's to win the next general election they need to elect a Blair type more centrist and tie the tories to economic uncertainy. Hammer away at all the blatant lies they spewed about Brexit and the near immidiate evidence of the geopolitical and economic disaster this has been. That is really the only winning strategy and I don't see Corbyn doing it.

Blue Barrett wrote:

Lex wrote:Well, because that's what they are.

Funny. I remember you a few pages back getting offended at me calling people who voted ignorantly for Brexit inbreds and idiots. Name calling only allowed when you're the one doing it, ehy?

Boy, I knew you were as dense as a month old bowl of custard, but I didn't think it was this bad. Do you honestly think calling someone inbred for their political beliefs and calling someone an idiot for throwing the term nazi around so casually are the same thing?

What's with the meltdown, I think everybody on either side who bothered looking up the implications of a Brexit came to the conclusion that short term it would shake up the economy.

Judging how well we do now compared to how well Europe does should be over the span of a decade at least not a Week.

Whole country is knee jerking and we're not in the process of leaving the EU yet.

Unique wrote:

VivaStPauli wrote:A passing moment of retardation, if you will. I refuse to believe that over 50% of Britain are imbeciles.

how long have you lived in Britain

About three years, which isn't that long, but I did travel.

Tomwin Lannister wrote:What's with the meltdown, I think everybody on either side who bothered looking up the implications of a Brexit came to the conclusion that short term it would shake up the economy.

Judging how well we do now compared to how well Europe does should be over the span of a decade at least not a Week.

Whole country is knee jerking and we're not in the process of leaving the EU yet.

Actually no, if David Cameron had gone full retard and actually activated article 50 the day after the referendum like he said he would then the fallout wouldn't have been short term at all, it would have been utterly catastrophic and companies would have started moving in droves because at that point there would be no turning back, which is why Cameron cleverly didn't activate article 50 on Friday and instead left it in the hands of the next Tory leader, who will most likely be a Brexiteer, so that when they do activate article 50 and shit hits the fan then Cameron will get none of the blame. Markets have been recovering over the past couple of days because Camerons idiotic threat didn't come to fruition and there is some belief among investors that Brexit may not actually happen, but Cameron and the leading Tory Brexiteers have shot that belief down today sadly.

I've made contact with some friends in Germany to try and find a way to get a job there whilst the UK stock market is still relatively stable (the FTSE 250( the market which contains UK companies trading in the pound) really worries me though) and things are relatively fine, because I don't wanna be here when someone grows a pair, takes that swig of vodka and actually activates article 50.

And I thought this week couldn't get any worse. I just saw this update from someone whose been running around the City of London the past few days.

Judah wrote:Merkel and Brussels have outright already refused an EEA+ agreement that gives UK migration control, passporting and single market access.

What is passporting? All banks registered in UK have a "passport" that allows them to do business with whole EU. The City depends on it.

Base case is Berlin and Brussels plan to insist on an EEA- (i.e. a worse deal than Norway) that excludes passporting, migration controls.

This would however allow services to continue to have access to the singoe market. But not financial services. Mass migration continues.

This is formal offer. But Paris is planning a turn of cynical brilliance - that could at a stroke smite London and restore Paris to glory.

France cynicallly intends to offer Britain an EEA- that excludes passporting, but givs them a migration cap, and single market access.

This is a brilliant move: "you get less Poles, but we want your banks." It would be in France's interests to encourage UK out to get banks.

This would leave some stuff shirt like Crabb in a disastrous position: Paris and Berlin would have handed him a deal only "bad for bankers."

But the cynical French deal would be exactly the kind of cap migration, free movement for us and single market deal that the public want.

The next Tory muchkin leader would then be a hideous position: have his tax base slasshed at by loss of banks as his voters rejoice.

Paris and Frankfurt would emerge as enormous winners by ending passporting. Hugely boosting popularity of French and German leadership.

/British public will be left moronically clapping the huge triumph of a few less Poles and the punishment for "bankers" and tax base slashed.

//City analysts I met look with unbrindled distain on a Tory leadership class they think are simply muppets. No clue what's about to hit them.

The last part is sadly so true. People will be hollering and cheering all those nasty, nasty greedy bankers leaving our country, not realising that they're doomed.

I can't even be mad at France's plan, it's genius, we exposed ourselves to this happening by voting to leave. I have never seen a country so willingly *bleep* itself for no good reason.

Honestly this is gonna be surprising coming from me, but England does have an immigration problem(not all the immigrants are bad, but I've noticed there's far more bad apples in the UK).

I don't think exiting the EU will solve anything though. France pretty much said they're gonna let the immigrants waiting behind the English Channel go for example lol. And economically, the U.K. Has a lot to lose from Brexit

I've always said immigration is a fantastic thing, the benefits are there for everybody to see

It's when immigration is uncontrolled,which under the EU rules it is, you get problems. I mean, why wouldn't boat loads of unskilled Workers in countries with shit wages and massive unemployment rates chance their luck over here.

You need to have a major say on the numbers coming in, it's only going to get worse especially since we're not exactly blessed with land are we?

The EU isn't exactly amazing and short term obviously we're better off staying in the EU. But what about long term? It's a gamble but I personally see the EU worsening over time. And it could very well be best that we're not significantly tied to it.

The only way for the City to survive is to join the EEA, all the other trade deals (Canada, Switzerland) don't include financial services. But joining the EEA means paying EU dues without getting any of that re-invested and abiding by all the EU rules, including free migration, so this would be the worst of both worlds and probably unacceptable to Leave politicians.

I think the City is dead. Firms have already started moving away:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html

Financial services is a bigger portion of GDP than manufacturing btw.

Lex wrote:

Blue Barrett wrote:

Lex wrote:Well, because that's what they are.

Funny. I remember you a few pages back getting offended at me calling people who voted ignorantly for Brexit inbreds and idiots. Name calling only allowed when you're the one doing it, ehy?

Boy, I knew you were as dense as a month old bowl of custard, but I didn't think it was this bad. Do you honestly think calling someone inbred for their political beliefs and calling someone an idiot for throwing the term nazi around so casually are the same thing?

Mate, with this choking level of condescension you have going on, it's not surprising that you don't realize them calling someone a Nazi (whether you agree with it or not) is their social belief (a.k.a they think said person/people are racist).

I'll stop here before I really say what's on my mind and get myself a suspension. Have a evening, "man".

From the Economist:

EIU Brexit Take

1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained
2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy
3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017



4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24
5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises



6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018



7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)
8. While this is going on, politics will remain deeply fractious. The Govt, the main parties, parliament & the Union all face big threats
9. We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead
10. The UK will likely invoke Art 50 before year end, implying that negotiations will conclude in late 2018
11. UK will agree an EEA minus deal with significant constraints on services access in return for limitations on migration
12. Much of the financial services sector may be left in the cold
13. New PM will eat heroic quantities of humble pie to get the deal; UK will be permanently out of the room on big decisions
14: This new deal will be confirmed through either a second referendum or a general election at the end of the process
15. Leavers will tell voters they wont get what they want on migration. Will lead to major backlash = structural rise for radical right
16. This is a particular threat for Labour. We expect UKIP etc to mount a serious challenge in Labour heartlands (even with Corbyn gone)
17. UK establishment will take time to fully reassert itself. Lack of planning / credibility will lead to ongoing doubts about capacity
18. Much of the UK's 'political stability premium' based on predictability / reliability etc could be lost for long time
19. As UK leaves, recovery will be underway but economy & politics will look structurally different
20. We are not predicting second Scot ref at this stage, but constitutional settlement needs to change (inc London / FPTP?)
21. Impacts across Europe will be substantial. We have taken 0.2% off growth and see larger political risks – particularly in Italy/France
22. The region is capable of managing Brexit, and other crises in isolation. It may not be capable of managing several crises at once
23. We expect things to hold together, but see major downside risks – include possibility EU wont deal, or that crises spin out of control

Tomwin Lannister wrote:I've always said immigration is a fantastic thing, the benefits are there for everybody to see

It's when immigration is uncontrolled,which under the EU rules it is, you get problems. I mean, why wouldn't boat loads of unskilled Workers in countries with shit wages and massive unemployment rates chance their luck over here.

You need to have a major say on the numbers coming in, it's only going to get worse especially since we're not exactly blessed with land are we?

The EU isn't exactly amazing and short term obviously we're better off staying in the EU. But what about long term? It's a gamble but I personally see the EU worsening over time. And it could very well be best that we're not significantly tied to it.

Is the EU worse now than it was 15 or 25 years ago though? I don't think so, not really. Not in my opinion at least. If anything they've gotten stronger in certain areas. Of course there have been challenges but overall, I don't think they're worse now than they were in the past. So based on that, is there really much evidence that they'll be worse in the future?

Conservative Party leader preference:
T. May: 36%
B. Johnson: 27%
A. Leadsom: 7%
S. Crabb: 7%
L. Fox: 4%
(via YouGov / Con members surveyed)

Conservative Party leader voting intention, May vs. Johnson runoff:
T. May: 55%
B. Johnson: 38%
(via YouGov / Con members surveyed)

Boris Johnson going into hiding this past week seems to be paying off for him, he might not have to drink from the poisoned chalice that is the Tory leadership after all.

Theresa May as PM though......

Well nobody can say for certain, otherwise there wouldn't be a referendum if the EU was guaranteed to give us all a better future.


For what it's worth last year Juncker was pretty damning of the future of the EU. The most Pro-EU man on the Planet.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11949038/Europes-glory-days-at-an-end-warns-Juncker.html


Of course, England could be worse off. But it could also easily go the other way 10-20 Years down the line. Especially if other EU members follow suit and bail.

I would love nothing more than for England to be better off. We all benefit from it in the end, except maybe the EU.

But at the moment, I just can't see it.

Already starting to see articles popping up about the UK becoming the 51st state in America from credible news sources (obviously not as credible after wasting ink on such a notion).

It was interesting to be in the Country as an outsider while all this was going on. That said, I think it was insane to leave without a credible plan for the transition ready and waiting should those voting leave succeeded. This is a world determined by regional trading blocs. For the UK not to be in one and have no plan moving forward will lead to some very hard times ahead for its people.

Holy shit, I've just seen the Daily Mails front cover, they've already fallen into France's trap. For those who don't know what I mean, I posted this earlier. Read the bolded part.

Spoiler:

Now Look at the Daily Mails front page


(click to enlarge)



France playing 11th dimensional chess.