Arsenal's back three myth

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Arsenal's back three myth

Post by Jay29 on Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:53 pm

7amkickoff took a lot at the stats for the 10 games we played with a back three last season. His findings? Our defensive improvement was a total myth and it's only thanks to Cech that we didn't ship more goals.

The formation change did see a marginal improvement in our attack, however. Ironic given the impetus for the change was to tighten up the back.

Here's the article:

http://news.arseblog.com/2017/06/arsenals-back-three-myth-busted-by-the-numbers/?utm_campaign=autotwitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

Question is, if Arsenal are aware of these stats (which they should be), will we return to a 4-2-3-1 next season?
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Re: Arsenal's back three myth

Post by urbaNRoots on Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:30 pm

I think it's too small of a sample to decide either way.

Anyway the 5 man defence may not decrease the number of "big" chances we concede but it does allow an extra man to defend a silly mistake, which we are very much prone to.

These statistical experts, as usual, ignore context for numbers. 7amkickoff used the reverse fixtures of our 10 game run but ignored that some teams are much stronger/weaker at home/away from home.

As for what Wenger will do, he will move back to a 4231 as soon as the first bad result happens with the 3421, he will never use this formation on long term.

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Re: Arsenal's back three myth

Post by Great Leader Sprucenuce on Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:35 pm

I think the point being missed (from the handful games I watched)  is how much better the system fits Xhaka and Ramsey.

And by the domino effect it gives more freedom to Sanchez and Ozil because of the 3 CBs and two wing backs.

It's just a system which gets the most out of key players while not looking overly imbalanced, sure I get that it's a small sample size but we KNOW 4231 doesn't work and it causes imbalances over the place.

For 4231 to work, you need a completely new midfield so I really don't see the point. Where as with 343 you probably need a winger and striker at most.

It just takes a lot more work, doing that just because you think that it might be a small sample size doesn't make sense when 4231 is a proven failure.

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