BREXIT Premier League 17-18 Discussion Part 7

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Post by Firenze Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:22 pm

Doc wrote:
Firenze wrote:You know what's interesting, though. You see a lot of criticism towards United and the way they supposedly play being very meat and potatoes, so to speak. Yet you don't hear anything about the way Chelsea play, I've found that curious. Becuase IMO Chelsea play the worst Football I've seen of any of the top 6 since Conte came in

You notice that too huh. To be exact, you hear way more criticism of Utd's bad matches than you do about Chelsea's bad matches.


Yeah..I struggle to understand it. For the media it seems like Conte and Chelsea aren't on the radar, despite being top 3 for the entire season pretty much. Seems like has has 0 pressure on him.

I guess in part because the media are in love with the Mou and Pep feud. Still, even compared to Wenger and Klopp it seems there's 0 attention on Chelsea. Strange.

@CB I wasn't even talking about GL in general, it would be more understandable in that case. I'm talking about the general media/press

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Post by Jay29 Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:23 pm

I'm not anti-United at all, but their numbers are interesting this year because they suggest they're actually over-achieving.

This is just according to one site (you'll find other sites have different numbers), but United's xG this season is 42.6, while there actual goal tally is 49. So that suggests that about 6 or 7 seven goals were low percentage - think those long shots Lingard scores - or just lucky.

That's fine because Chelsea and Liverpool are the same. Chelsea's xG is 38.25 vs 45 actual goals, and Liverpool's is 48.51 vs 54 goals scored. So in front of goal these three are converting at the same level.

Where it gets interesting is goals conceded. United have conceded just 16 this season, which is great on paper. But their xGA is 28.9... so that's 12 to 13 goals they should have conceded but didn't (and I reckon about five of those came in that Arsenal game).

What that all suggests is that luck is actually playing a big part in United's season so far. Liverpool actually create more chances and concede less chances than United do despite being perceived as having a weaker defence, but haven't been as lucky. Otherwise they'd be above them in the table.

Then you get to Arsenal who are performing near where they should be and are sixth Laughing

All the numbers are here. It's really fun stuff.

https://understat.com/league/EPL/2017


Last edited by Jay29 on Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by urbaNRoots Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:24 pm

There is no anti Man Utd agenda out there.

No one likes Mourinho, with appointing him you take the good and the bad. He's a great manager but also a very unpleasant man. The club he joins instantly becomes despicable, he even likes to sign questionable characters for his team.

It doesn't matter what kind of football his team plays, they will hate on him and even on the players because of him. You can't argue against success though, if he wins something people have to reluctantly suck it up and congratuöate him but the moment it goes wrong they will attack him from all sides.

That's why being charming is important in football, just as it is everywhere in life.
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Post by Firenze Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:28 pm

I can see that being true, actually. Last year you had me whining about super goalkeepers and wasteful chances etc but this year I'm not seeing it, at least to a point outside of the norm for any teams.

Regarding the expected goals against etc, again, I can totally see that. Thinking back to it we've had a bunch of close calls this season and were bailed out by De Gea or crap attackers, I can think of 3/4 goals that a competent attacker would have put away against us in the last 2-3 games alone. We've been quite fortunate to concede the low amount of goals that we have so far.
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Post by CBarca Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:33 pm

Thanks for that Jay, I have another tool in my arsenal

If you look at the table based on expected points, Tottenham are second Laughing

Tbf have mentioned before Tottenham have had some insane bad luck at times this season
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:34 pm

United's best attacking games were beginning of the season when Mkhitaryan was performing well. He's the most creative player in their squad.
Ironically that's the player they're now selling, because Mourinho prefers Lingard to him.
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Post by Firenze Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:37 pm

Hapless_Hans wrote:United's best attacking games were beginning of the season when Mkhitaryan was performing well. He's the most creative player in their squad.
Ironically that's the player they're now selling, because Mourinho prefers Lingard to him.


Mkhi stuff aside, the best signing we can make this summer is Ozil on a free. We are starved of an elite creative player, Mata is our best and he's great when he turns up but incredibly inconsistent and not in Ozil's tier.
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Post by Jay29 Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:39 pm

CBarca wrote:Thanks for that Jay, I have another tool in my arsenal

If you look at the table based on expected points, Tottenham are second Laughing

Tbf have mentioned before Tottenham have had some insane bad luck at times this season


One game that comes to mind straight away is the 1-1 with West Ham. West Ham's only shot was an Obiang screamer that goes in maybe once every 100 games, and it happened to go in against Spurs Laughing Any other day Spurs win that 1-0 and on equal points with Liverpool.

Luck is huge in football and is often the difference between league positions and how the media creates a narrative. The entire story around a team can change based on one or two chance events.

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Post by Unique Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:11 pm

Firenze wrote:
Unique wrote:
this is a serious question with the investment that's gone into the team and with mourinho in charge do you think the football you play and the results you have are value for money. imo with the investment that's been made you should be up there with the likes of psg Bayern city madrid and barca but the truth is you are a million miles from them.


I think we're on the right track. First season was a success. You may think they're mickey mouse trophies, but 3 of a possible 5 was a success. We're second in the league and have consistently been there the entire season pretty much - second best team in the league, I'm not even particularly impressed with City nor do I think we're too far behind their level of play. The difference has been that we stuttered during the busy festive season and they, while playing mediocre stuff made it through with full points which was huge. Nor do I believe we're a million miles behind Bayern, PSG etc, teams I know for a fact you would have watched 0 of this season and just think of as 'elite' names. The truth is we're among that list of names in terms of teams that could make it to the CL final. The level across the European heavyweights has closed, that's something you can't dispute. Now, I don't think that's entirely because of wise spending on our part but let's just say if we didn't sign the likes of Pogba, Matic etc we wouldn't even be in the mix. So to me that's money well spent.
its when you make posts like this that I don't understand your thinking. you say you are not far off the best teams in Europe and you have a chance at the cl final yet you say Liverpool are a poor team with only 2 good players yet if we beat Swansea on Monday we are only 3 points behind you. plus we play better football than you lot and we score more goals. so that must mean you are not as good as you say you are or Liverpool are much better than you say we are. my opinion is both teams are not that good tbh. scratch
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Post by Great Leader Sprucenuce Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:15 pm

Hapless_Hans wrote:
Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:
Hapless_Hans wrote:Is Hapless Hans the worst Poster in the GL League?


Seriously though, City with 82% possession, Newcastle with the least passes in a game in recorded history or some shit.

This is a disgrace. And it's not only an insult to people watching, it's alos the most certified way to lose against City.
As Klopp called it, sitting in your box and hoping to win the lottery. Well guess what, the odds to win the lottery are pretty small, and lo and behold Newcastle are losing, as have been all the other crap teams of this league.

It's no wonder Pep is walking this league like he's never walked a league before.


Have you seen our players lol? most of them can't control a football.

It's alright for Klopp to say that when he has genuine attacking talent but our best attacking player flopped at *bleep* Bournmouth

I'm not going to say every decision Rafa is making this season is the right one, in fact i'd make some person changes to the team today but the reality is we have very little choice due to how the management has *bleep* over the manager.

If we stay up he'd deserve major, major credit and probably his best achievement in his career.
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Post by Unique Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:15 pm

Jay29 wrote:I'm not anti-United at all, but their numbers are interesting this year because they suggest they're actually over-achieving.

This is just according to one site (you'll find other sites have different numbers), but United's xG this season is 42.6, while there actual goal tally is 49. So that suggests that about 6 or 7 seven goals were low percentage - think those long shots Lingard scores - or just lucky.

That's fine because Chelsea and Liverpool are the same. Chelsea's xG is 38.25 vs 45 actual goals, and Liverpool's is 48.51 vs 54 goals scored. So in front of goal these three are converting at the same level.

Where it gets interesting is goals conceded. United have conceded just 16 this season, which is great on paper. But their xGA is 28.9... so that's 12 to 13 goals they should have conceded but didn't (and I reckon about five of those came in that Arsenal game).

What that all suggests is that luck is actually playing a big part in United's season so far. Liverpool actually create more chances and concede less chances than United do despite being perceived as having a weaker defence, but haven't been as lucky. Otherwise they'd be above them in the table.

Then you get to Arsenal who are performing near where they should be and are sixth Laughing

All the numbers are here. It's really fun stuff.

https://understat.com/league/EPL/2017
that has nothing to do with luck. that's down to Liverpool having the 2 worst keepers in the top 10.
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Post by RealGunner Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:21 pm

Unreal super Sunday tomorrow



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Post by CBarca Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:38 pm

Are they calling it that? rofl
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Post by RealGunner Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:40 pm

Yup
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Post by Great Leader Sprucenuce Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:40 pm

It's called Super Sunday every Sunday because if you are the PL you can't be anything but Super tbh.
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Post by RealGunner Sat Jan 20, 2018 4:43 pm

Brexit specialist Mole has a point tbh
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Post by RealGunner Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:08 pm

James McCarthy suffered a double leg break against WBA.

Hope he recovers asap. That's a year out pretty much
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Post by Firenze Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:26 pm

RealGunner wrote:James McCarthy suffered a double leg break against WBA.

Hope he recovers asap. That's a year out pretty much


pretty sure a club like WBA use the NHS too rather than club medical staff, so could be longer depending on delays

also hear it was Rondon  that did it?

more ammo for brexit
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Post by Luca Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:28 pm

https://streamable.com/6qvd1

ffs, don't click if you don't want to see the leg break

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Post by RealGunner Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:28 pm

Saw the incident and it was an unfortunate one. No one to blame.

Wait, is that WBA thing legit?
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Post by RealGunner Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:39 pm

Just found out Locadia moved to Brighton ffs.

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Post by Firenze Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:50 pm

saw that yesterday, another dutch league fraud that will score less than 5 goals
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Post by Great Leader Sprucenuce Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:01 pm

Total cost of our starting XI today = £58 million. Total cost of our starting XI the last time we beat Man City in the Premier League (2005) = £60 million. The true effect of 10 years of Mike Ashley.
#NUFC

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Post by Unique Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:21 pm

Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:Total cost of our starting XI today = £58 million. Total cost of our starting XI the last time we beat Man City in the Premier League (2005) = £60 million. The true effect of 10 years of Mike Ashley.
#NUFC

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that's like naymars forskin Laughing
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Post by Firenze Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:30 pm

Huddersfield's entire squad cost less than that, IIRC. They're above you in the table. NO EXCUSES.

These performances that Rafa's delivering

BREXIT Premier League 17-18 Discussion Part 7 - Page 22 Giphy

I fully expect Ashley to make himself into a villain by sacking him, appointing someone less glamorous but keeping you up. Greatest self sacrifice since Batman at the end of the Dark Knight
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Post by Great Leader Sprucenuce Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:34 pm

Huddersfield spent more than us in the summer lol.
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