German Politics

looks good for SPD

BUNDESTAGSWAHL: INSA-Potentialanalyse zur Sonntagsfrage vom 23. August 2021

Aktuelles Potential | "Wähle ich grundsätzlich nicht"

SPD: 46% | 20%
Union: 41% | 28%
GRÜNE: 33% | 37%
FDP: 30% | 27%
LINKE: 21% | 40%
AfD: 16% | 70%

https://t.co/QjdaiH1dBf#btw #btw21 pic.twitter.com/jx4EwYmnEj

— Deutschland Wählt (@Wahlen_DE) August 24, 2021

A government with SPD , Die Linke and Green = I want to move in Germany.

Imagine if it happens .. it'd be the most leftist ever  in German history ( anyway coalition with 3 parties 's happened just in 50s I think)

anyway these are just polls but this polls are so optimistic towards SPD, considered as a "terminally ill" until recently... we'll see

Robespierre wrote:A government with SPD , Die Linke and Green = I want to move in Germany.

Imagine if it happens .. it'd be the most leftist ever  in German history ( anyway coalition with 3 parties 's happened just in 50s I think)

anyway these are just polls but this polls are so optimistic towards SPD, considered as a "terminally ill" until recently... we'll see

I would certainly be happy to welcome you, because I would be happy about everything if that happens.

SPD seems to be pulling away lmfaoooooo

just by flying under the radar....

the wheel of bizarreness has come full circle

anyway, rot-rot-grün? I'll believe it when I see it @Robespierre . They won't do it. Don't you know, NATO?!?!? the NATO?!?!
There will probably be an Ypsilanti moment in the Bundestag before that actually happens.

Let's not forget the SPD is rotten to the core, don't think even the embarrassments and humiliations of the last 2 decades have managed to dry out the rot.
There are guys in that party who won't hesitate to vote to destroy the party's success and chances instead of supporting a way to power that involves, God forbid, the left.

I'm fully bracing myself for a continuation of the Große Koalition, I'm even bracing myself for 16 years of Laschet like Kohl 2.0

I won't expect anything good to come out of that election whatsoever, hope it proves me wrong

Well talking about “a way to power” and “the left” strikes real fear into people like fascism does. I mean when “the left” has power to rule by their own discretion they PUT EACH OTHER on show trials, they set each other up for false allegations of crimes, torture and murder each other. I won’t even bother describing how strong the incentive for people who are not leftists is to stop the left having power. I think I prefer the power to be diffused into a balance between competing institutions than concentrated in the left’s hands, even though I have values that are consistent with leftism.

Found wrote:Well talking about “a way to power” and “the left” strikes real fear into people like fascism does. I mean when “the left” has power to rule by their own discretion they PUT EACH OTHER on show trials, they set each other up for false allegations of crimes, torture and murder each other. I won’t even bother describing how strong the incentive for people who are not leftists is to stop the left having power. I think I prefer the power to be diffused into a balance between competing institutions than concentrated in the left’s hands, even though I have values that are consistent with leftism.

It seems like you're having trouble distinguishing between dictatorship and social democracy. Would you like some help, or do you want to say Breitbart things?

Hapless_Hans wrote:
I'm fully bracing myself for a continuation of the Große Koalition, I'm even bracing myself for 16 years of Laschet like Kohl 2.0

Nope! Luschet will dig CDU's grave. The Luschet cancer is at stage 4, no one even dares to publically look up to him, for their reputation could also become damaged after the failed campaign. Point of no return is achieved. You can see how Söder doesn't offer himself anymore, too late

Babun wrote:

Hapless_Hans wrote:
I'm fully bracing myself for a continuation of the Große Koalition, I'm even bracing myself for 16 years of Laschet like Kohl 2.0

Nope! Luschet will dig CDU's grave. The Luschet cancer is at stage 4, no one even dares to publically look up to him, for their reputation could also become damaged after the failed campaign. Point of no return is achieved. You can see how Söder doesn't offer himself anymore, too late

You think Kohl and Merkel had better reputation, standing, respect or popularity when they became chancellor? Do you think people expected them to become the most powerful people in the country's politics?

I'm not sure whether you're old enough to remember, but Kohl basically was a grotesuqe, fat mountain of meat who was basically a carnival freak, and everyone regarded Merkel as a more or less mentally retarded quota Ossi who was too ugly to be regarded a female human being

They both governed Germany for 16 years...

You watch. Don't rule out a Laschet era..

Scholz fits the narrative too, though, the epitome of uninspiring, uncharismatic and not representing any kind of vision or spirit.

I see Scholz hype collapsing just like Schulz train did, sadly.

Hapless_Hans wrote:

Babun wrote:

Hapless_Hans wrote:
I'm fully bracing myself for a continuation of the Große Koalition, I'm even bracing myself for 16 years of Laschet like Kohl 2.0

Nope! Luschet will dig CDU's grave. The Luschet cancer is at stage 4, no one even dares to publically look up to him, for their reputation could also become damaged after the failed campaign. Point of no return is achieved. You can see how Söder doesn't offer himself anymore, too late

You think Kohl and Merkel had better reputation, standing, respect or popularity when they became chancellor? Do you think people expected them to become the most powerful people in the country's politics?

I'm not sure whether you're old enough to remember, but Kohl basically was a grotesuqe, fat mountain of meat who was basically a carnival freak, and everyone regarded Merkel as a more or less mentally retarded quota Ossi who was too ugly to be regarded a female human being

They both governed Germany for 16 years...

You watch. Don't rule out a Laschet era..

Scholz fits the narrative too, though, the epitome of uninspiring, uncharismatic and not representing any kind of vision or spirit.

Nope, we were in an era where everyone wanted to keep the status quo. People demand changes this time around. Laschet doesn't have Merkel's format.

VivaStPauli wrote:I see Scholz hype collapsing just like Schulz train did, sadly.

Schulz was all air, Scholz isn't. He's always been an important figure in the government. Schulz was a hyped nobody with shitloads of substanceless polemics (which Scholz totally lacks) who was found out for who he was and shipped to Brussels. In fact, Scholz is the only candidate with any format at all to represent Germany, internationally (less worse than the other two in the bunch).

VivaStPauli wrote:

Found wrote:Well talking about “a way to power” and “the left” strikes real fear into people like fascism does. I mean when “the left” has power to rule by their own discretion they PUT EACH OTHER on show trials, they set each other up for false allegations of crimes, torture and murder each other. I won’t even bother describing how strong the incentive for people who are not leftists is to stop the left having power. I think I prefer the power to be diffused into a balance between competing institutions than concentrated in the left’s hands, even though I have values that are consistent with leftism.

It seems like you're having trouble distinguishing between dictatorship and social democracy. Would you like some help, or do you want to say Breitbart things?

Ready to bet that he ignores who was Willy Brandt, thinking he's that player who plays for Borussia Dortmund

Hapless_Hans wrote:SPD seems to be pulling away lmfaoooooo

just by flying under the radar....

the wheel of bizarreness has come full circle

anyway, rot-rot-grün? I'll believe it when I see it @Robespierre . They won't do it. Don't you know, NATO?!?!? the NATO?!?!
There will probably be an Ypsilanti moment in the Bundestag before that actually happens.

Let's not forget the SPD is rotten to the core, don't think even the embarrassments and humiliations of the last 2 decades have managed to dry out the rot.
There are guys in that party who won't hesitate to vote to destroy the party's success and chances instead of supporting a way to power that involves, God forbid, the left.

I'm fully bracing myself for a continuation of the Große Koalition, I'm even bracing myself for 16 years of Laschet like Kohl 2.0

I won't expect anything good to come out of that election whatsoever, hope it proves me wrong

Yep I can't imagine a rot-rot-grun coaltion happening, it'd be just amazing, a real dream but I imagine Die Linke is still a bit' obstructed ' because "much much " leftist.
Probably the most leftist political force ever in BRD ? Talking about parties who get good numbers.
Because well, IMO ppl talk very little on how are good the Die Linke numbers.
They haven't that media coverage that has AfD for example.
But Die Like is also a party recently born who gets 9% even though in this time, sadly, the wind pushes towards right.
Indeed I ' m not surprised about votes got from AfD. Believe me , in Italy I've even Two parties that look like identitic to them , and they get similar electorate. But if I think to similar parties with Die Linke in Italy, not even 3%

Having said that, yes red red green is really difficult to image a day because of Die Linke but a SPD - Green is surely possible, and we agree that it'd be very good anyway

SPD is a systemic force since 1956, so systemic that he could govern during Cold War ( I underline that" can", because in that period Italy had Communist Party to 35% but never governmed otherwise we 'd have made same end of Chile 1973 Chilean coup d'état . But Italian socialists could govern, precisely)

It's difficult image that SPD 's suddenly regained the trust of his electors, in fact this poll looked like extremely optimistic for me, more likely CDU is a party used to govern for decades in Germany ( Adenauer, Kohl, Merkel ) but its propulsive thrust is going to exhaurite and mainly because citizens perceive the desire for change.
The point is : SPD will be able to fit in this emptiness ?

Robespierre wrote:

Hapless_Hans wrote:SPD seems to be pulling away lmfaoooooo

just by flying under the radar....

the wheel of bizarreness has come full circle

anyway, rot-rot-grün? I'll believe it when I see it @Robespierre . They won't do it. Don't you know, NATO?!?!? the NATO?!?!
There will probably be an Ypsilanti moment in the Bundestag before that actually happens.

Let's not forget the SPD is rotten to the core, don't think even the embarrassments and humiliations of the last 2 decades have managed to dry out the rot.
There are guys in that party who won't hesitate to vote to destroy the party's success and chances instead of supporting a way to power that involves, God forbid, the left.

I'm fully bracing myself for a continuation of the Große Koalition, I'm even bracing myself for 16 years of Laschet like Kohl 2.0

I won't expect anything good to come out of that election whatsoever, hope it proves me wrong

Yep I can't imagine a rot-rot-grun coaltion happening, it'd be just amazing, a real dream but I imagine Die Linke is still a bit' obstructed ' because "much much " leftist.
Probably the most leftist political force ever in BRD ? Talking about parties who get good numbers.
Because well, IMO ppl talk very little on how are good the Die Linke numbers.
They haven't that media coverage that has AfD for example.
But Die Like is also a party recently born who gets 9% even though in this time, sadly, the wind pushes towards right.
Indeed I ' m not surprised about votes got from AfD. Believe me , in Italy I've even Two parties that look like identitic to them , and they get similar electorate. But if I think to similar parties with Die Linke in Italy, not even 3%

Having said that, yes red red green is really difficult to image a day because of Die Linke but a SPD - Green is surely possible, and we agree that it'd be very good anyway

SPD is a systemic force since 1956, so systemic that he could govern during Cold War ( I underline that" can", because in that period Italy had Communist Party to 35% but never governmed otherwise we 'd have made same end of Chile 1973 Chilean coup d'état . But Italian socialists could govern, precisely)

It's difficult image that SPD 's suddenly regained the trust of his electors, in fact this poll looked like extremely optimistic for me, more likely CDU is a party used to govern for decades in Germany ( Adenauer, Kohl, Merkel ) but its propulsive thrust is going to exhaurite and mainly because citizens perceive the desire for change.
The point is : SPD will be able to fit in this emptiness ?

Die Linke is getting exclusively negative treatment from the establishment media, it's a relentless treatment that has never ceded since over 20 years, when it was still the PDS.
The articles and report always focus on differences, infighting, controversies, never on the fact that the policies the party stands for are favoured or seen sympathetic by a large part of the population.

It's part of the journalistic etiquette of good 'democratic' patriotic German journalists to be dismissive and negative about the Left Party, and politicians of the Greens and the SPD are supposed to protest loudly everytime they are asked about a possible coalition - even though the majority of voters has made the coalition possible before and even though on terms of policies it would make much more sense than any other coalition that could realistically produce a SPD chancellor. Not to mention that the political positions of the current Linke are very similar to classic SPD positions, and they have the Lafontaine to show for too.
That's been the story of the last decade and more. A tragedy if it wasn't so farcical.

Meanwhile, the planet is burning under "climate chancellor" Merkel.

VivaStPauli wrote:

Found wrote:Well talking about “a way to power” and “the left” strikes real fear into people like fascism does. I mean when “the left” has power to rule by their own discretion they PUT EACH OTHER on show trials, they set each other up for false allegations of crimes, torture and murder each other. I won’t even bother describing how strong the incentive for people who are not leftists is to stop the left having power. I think I prefer the power to be diffused into a balance between competing institutions than concentrated in the left’s hands, even though I have values that are consistent with leftism.

It seems like you're having trouble distinguishing between dictatorship and social democracy. Would you like some help, or do you want to say Breitbart things?

Overestimating the power of a dictator is a common mistake. A dictator is never more than a figurehead of a social group whose combined arms have achieved a monopoly on violence. Real power may flow through the dictator but it’s not the dicator’s ppwer as it’s merely being lent to him/her/zim.


Cersei is not powerful, she is just the receptacle for the big man’s power in this particular case

If the receptacle of power is a figurehead, a committee, or a whole bunch of committees, doesn’t really matter if they are processing the decisions of a social group that has achieved a monopoly on violence.

Hapless_Hans wrote:
anyway, rot-rot-grün? I'll believe it when I see it @Robespierre . They won't do it. Don't you know, NATO?!?!? the NATO?!?!
There will probably be an Ypsilanti moment in the Bundestag before that actually happens.

Hapless_Hans wrote:
Die Linke is getting exclusively negative treatment from the establishment media, it's a relentless treatment that has never ceded since over 20 years, when it was still the PDS.
The articles and report always focus on differences, infighting, controversies, never on the fact that the policies the party stands for are favoured or seen sympathetic by a large part of the population.

It's part of the journalistic etiquette of good 'democratic' patriotic German journalists to be dismissive and negative about the Left Party, and politicians of the Greens and the SPD are supposed to protest loudly everytime they are asked about a possible coalition - even though the majority of voters has made the coalition possible before and even though on terms of policies it would make much more sense than any other coalition that could realistically produce a SPD chancellor. Not to mention that the political positions of the current Linke are very similar to classic SPD positions, and they have the Lafontaine to show for too.
That's been the story of the last decade and more. A tragedy if it wasn't so farcical.

case in point, two news items from today, from the two arguably most relevant news websites of the center-left of Germany's establishment media landscape, the Spiegel and the Sueddeutsche Zeitung

First of all, there is the headline of the Sueddeutsche website this morning:



"Now for real/ Let's try for real" - subheadline reads

the Linke leadership is hungry for governing responsibility, the only option being red-greed-red. Yet make no mistake, in party and parliament fraction there's still the old ideologues and Putin-lovers who stand in the way of such a alliance

So, one the one hand the power-hungry leadership and on the other hand obstinate leftist ideologues, Putin thrown in there for colour .. that's the picture they paint about leftist parties. It was the same picture painted about the Green Party in the mid-90s by the way, with the notorious, infamous 'Fundi vs Realo' media show fight.


Meanwhile, also this morning, on the election news blog of the Spiegel website, there's this

SPD: Lauterbach against coalition with the left, Hubertus Heil reluctant too

Two most prominent SPD party figures, going out of their way to insist on preemptively denouncing one of the most promising and obvious governing coalitions that could bring their party into leading the government, in interviews, culminating in this snippet from Heil:

For post-election coalition there he says are a few points that are non-negotiable for the SPD "Among those are our foreign and defense policy responisbility, our membership in NATO - whoever questions this will not govern with us

The Left has in their party programm the demand to get out of NATO and transform security treaty architecture - what a crazy thought! Not to monetion that of course, a coalition governs according to a coalition contract, not according to the party program of one of its minor members.. but hey.



It's always the same. Forget it.
Forget the SPD. They won't win, they won't lead a government because they're busy defending the policy pillars of the right wing. As they have done for 150 years. As they're doing as the junior partner in the so-called Grand Coalition right now.

And then the failure to construct a center-left governing coalition, even if there is a numerical majority and as such it is backed by the populace, and though the situation is fucking crying out for it, is projected onto the imaginary obstinate ideologues of the Linke when they, the SPD themselves, perpetuate a taboo that effectively cock-blocks themselves, politically

That " they're busy defending the policy pillars of the right wing
as they have done for 150 years " is a great dig, I've to say it
My first thought is : Social democrat's complicity in the  Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht's murder
Well it seems to read old story in 70's , when  socialists and commies can't work together due to  of the Atlantic integrity's safeguard.
Before it was USA vs USSR, but now... EU is nothing more than umbrella of Atlantic pact , isn't it ?
Germany is the center of gravity of EU balance.
This makes Die Linke as the most unlikely party for every coalition.
And it's a concern that infects even SPD, that tbf should look to Die Linke as natural ally ( others have ideological justification at least ). I image also that SPD doesn't like the Die Linke growth because it erodes votes to his elctorate ( that electorate disappointed from SPD , especially for that neo-liberist inclination since Schroder era )
In a normal world The coalition SPD- Die Linke would be a natural landing.
In political terms it'd be called  Frontism, name given to left-wing political coalitions formed by Communists and Socialists (e.g. Front populaire in France and Frente Popular in Spain , Popular Front in Italy in '48  ... the  tendency of European socialist political parties that opted for joint action with the Communist parties).
Frontism, for one reason and another it is a thing that barely happens  in Western countries - for external ingerence, but not only this. Unfortunately we have to admitt that there 's also certain responsabilty of the leftist parties that tend to quarrel each other rather than coordinate each other.
Recently Spain was an exception in this.

I 've read that Scholz was brillaint  in the televised debate against his political challengers , and he " won " this .
@Hapless_Hans, are you still pessimist about SPD victory ?

Hapless_Hans wrote:SPD seems to be pulling away lmfaoooooo

IMO polling should be banned lol

Imagine how interesting elections would be without polling

Found wrote:Overestimating the power of a dictator is a common mistake. A dictator is never more than a figurehead of a social group whose combined arms have achieved a monopoly on violence. Real power may flow through the dictator but it’s not the dicator’s ppwer as it’s merely being lent to him/her/zim.

It seems like you're having trouble distinguishing between the 'dictator' and 'dictatorship', do you need some help of this, or do you want to throw around random phrases that don't mean anything?
Lack of democratic input is the inherent problem, as the presence of justice without popular input will be mostly random. Of course you can have an enlightened dictator, but if you don't, you have zero recourse without the rule of law, and democratic institutions - this is true regardless of economic model followed.

Cersei is not powerful, she is just the receptacle for the big man’s power in this particular case

If the receptacle of power is a figurehead, a committee, or a whole bunch of committees, doesn’t really matter if they are processing the decisions of a social group that has achieved a monopoly on violence.

That is basically a non-statement. A social group achieving a monopoly on violence is inherently a problem, whether that social group is bolsheviks or corporatists. If this is really your opinion, you don't have a problem with Communism, you have a problem with Autocracy.

More ontopic:
The election's drawing close, still looking good for Scholz. I am baffled by Laschet even still polling at above 20% considering the amounts of public gaffes, also what's been known about his tenure as a professor, his fundamentalist Christian advisor, and the obvious corruption permeating his party, and sister-party, whether it's the croneyism of Laschet himself, and his son's friends, the mask buying debacle of Spahn, or the Maut catastrophe of Andy Scheuer, or the cronyism of Scheuer misappropriating federal funds to help out his home state of Bavaria... The CDU/CSU simply must be stopped.

With Scholz of the SPD then being obviously tied up in the Cum Ex scandal, it is hilarious that Baerbock and the Greens managed to fuck up their campaign that much. What a banana republic we are indeed.

Nah you’re conflating dictatorship with authoritarianism as if there aren’t other mechanisms to such power than a strongman.
I guess if you’re a German communist I can understand why. You want to blame the history of your own country on the big bad moustache man, and you want to blame the history of your ideology on the other big bad moustache man.
This is just scapegoating for social problems that are deeper and harder to fix, although we do seem to have done a halfway decent job of eradicating prussian militarism from the German soul. I don’t doubt it will be back at some point though

Found wrote:Nah you’re conflating dictatorship with authoritarianism as if there aren’t other mechanisms to such power than a strongman.

No, I was explicitly replying to you saying the vessel of monolithic power didn't matter.
Also, dictatorship is authoritarianism, even if authoritarianism isn't necessarily a dictatorship.

I guess if you’re a German communist I can understand why. You want to blame the history of your own country on the big bad moustache man, and you want to blame the history of your ideology on the other big bad moustache man.

I am not. I can, however, look at the Soviet Union, and recognize that Marx wouldn't have recognized Stalin as marxist.
Mussolini, on the other hand, had no problems identifying Hitler as fascist, an ideology that is inherently authoritarian, which Communism isn't inherently. It's just that revolutions breed power vacuums and authoritarian movements are great at filling those.

This is just scapegoating for social problems that are deeper and harder to fix, although we do seem to have done a halfway decent job of eradicating prussian militarism from the German soul. I don’t doubt it will be back at some point though

Eh, Prussian militarism is such a meme, Prussia never was as culturally dominant in Germany as people make it out to be, and even without Prussian militarism the catholic germanic states had no problems coming up with military might, the Austrians didn't conquer most of southeastern Europe by making the best Kaiserschmarrn.

Modern social problems can probably be much easer adressed if we some day get rid of corporatism. It's just this layer of entitled super-rich entities that oppose the common good because it wouldn't be good for them financially that keeps holding modern democracies back. I don't actually think a planned economy is a desirable fix, but I understand it's appeal as it is the diametrical opposite of what is causing all those problems now.

Just stopping making exceptions for corporate entities from the rule of law would probably suffice. If a human being did what large companies did daily, they would be in jail, and that disparity is the major problem. Which is why nobody should vote for purely clienéle-oriented parties like the CDU/CSU or the FDP - they'll just keep protecting their buddies running the big companies that keep wages down and pollution high.

even if authoritarianism isn't necessarily a dictatorship.

Disagree, based on my/our experience.

Marx wouldn't have recognized Stalin as marxist.

Absolutely.

If a human being did what large companies did daily, they would be in jail

100% this.

Robespierre wrote:That " they're busy defending the policy pillars of the right wing
as they have done for 150 years " is a great dig, I've to say it
My first thought is : Social democrat's complicity in the  Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht's murder
Well it seems to read old story in 70's , when  socialists and commies can't work together due to  of the Atlantic integrity's safeguard.
Before it was USA vs USSR, but now... EU is nothing more than umbrella of Atlantic pact , isn't it ?
Germany is the center of gravity of EU balance.
This makes Die Linke as the most unlikely party for every coalition.
And it's a concern that infects even SPD, that tbf should look to Die Linke as natural ally ( others have ideological justification at least ). I image also that SPD doesn't like the Die Linke growth because it erodes votes to his elctorate ( that electorate disappointed from SPD , especially for that neo-liberist inclination since Schroder era )
In a normal world The coalition SPD- Die Linke would be a natural landing.
In political terms it'd be called  Frontism, name given to left-wing political coalitions formed by Communists and Socialists (e.g. Front populaire in France and Frente Popular in Spain , Popular Front in Italy in '48  ... the  tendency of European socialist political parties that opted for joint action with the Communist parties).
Frontism, for one reason and another it is a thing that barely happens  in Western countries - for external ingerence, but not only this. Unfortunately we have to admitt that there 's also certain responsabilty of the leftist parties that tend to quarrel each other rather than coordinate each other.
Recently Spain was an exception in this.

Robespierre wrote:I 've read that Scholz was brillaint  in the televised debate against his political challengers , and he " won " this .
@Hapless_Hans, are you still pessimist about SPD victory ?

I couldn't bring myself to watch the debates, I'm too old for that, even as a kind of media-scientific observational object it's not bearable anymore.

Yes, in terms of policy you would think the Linke to be the natural ally, especially since the policies of the Linke are social-democratic.
Of course, the Linke is a construct of two parties, a west Germany and a East Germany one, with the west being basically a fission product of the SPD's time in government under Schröder, and the east part being the succession of the succession of the GDR socialist state party.

The latter part is of course responsible for most of the stigma that's floated in the media about the Linke, no matter what the present party has to do with the GDR - the most connection still is in terms of Eastern German milieu, a connection that's strong in Eastern Berlin for example.

In reality, there never was a Linksfront in Germany, the SPD has always treated the parties and groups left of her as the most bitter enemies.
That they conspired to kill Liebknecht and Luxemburg together with the Deutsche Bank and Krupp chiefs and sent right-wing militia to kill socialist groups in the post WWI civil war (which is not taught as a civil war in German school history), is just the most blatant and bloody example.
Also since the left wing of the SPD left and founded the WASG in protest (who them merged into the Linke), the SPD has spent most of their energy trying to discredit and fight them, their former "Genossen".., instead of building any kind of meaningful coalition.
The SPD is part of the problem, not part of the solution. It's as easy as that.
..

I live in west Berlin, I just come back from having voted.

The polls have indeed been looking consistently good for Scholz, and going by them a red-green-red coalition might very well become numerically possible. But I still don't think it will happen.

The right wing media have been pushing back now, BILD claiming the polls to be tightening ("UMFRAGEHAMMER" - "polling hammer blow" - refering to one single late poll by Allensbach, a German polling firm classically and notoriously tilted towards CDU lol which has CDU and SPD virtually tied)

I don't know what will happen. It will depend on the details of percentage numbers, but already the narrative is towards a coalition that has "stability", in which numerical stabiltiy on paper seems to be more durable than a coaltition based on common goals and values. A red-green-red government, while clearly most congruent in terms of values and policies on paper, is considered fragile as it won't have a huge majority margin. That is the state of German politics, political class technocracy aka Realpolitik over visions and policies.

I will predict a traffic light coalition will eventually happen, after weeks of posturing by the FDP, and involving the capitulation of the republic's already precarious climate crisis policy goals.

That is, if the CDU doesn't indeed manage to sneak ahead of SPD again, then it will be interesting who between SPD or Grüne will cave to join the government. In that case, I think it will eventually end up with a continuation of the 'grand' coalition.

So my predicitons:
- if SPD is strongest party (most likely based on recent weeks polling) - SPD-Greens-FDP coalition ("traffic light"/Ampel coalition)
- if CDU is strongest party (my cynical self predicts this) - CDU-SPD coalition as it is right now ("Große Koalition", "Grand Coalition") - they can just stay in their ministries..

Myesyats wrote:

Hapless_Hans wrote:SPD seems to be pulling away lmfaoooooo

IMO polling should be banned lol

Imagine how interesting elections would be without polling

Funny enough, I seem to remember that part of the Bundesrepublikanische , post war Germany political etiquette regarding Bundestags election used to be a ban on publishing polls during the last week before the election.

You would never read or hear about polls for at least that last week, I kind of thought it was some kind of law but apparently it isn't, it might have been a self-imposed etiquette of the media which since has been puverized.

I know that this year there was a lawsuit fought between the official election commission and polling institutes about the right to publish and report exit polling on election day - and I think the election commission lost

KOA GIFFEY!

first estimates are too close too call, the Linke also weak and and the verge of not making the 5 percent hurdle into parliament and red-red-green definitively is no majority option as things stand

we need to wait for proper results now, there's the hope the inclusion of mal in votes will mean the result is more left leaning than the estimates

in Berlin, the Greens are close to beating the SPD as the strongest party, that would be pretty fucking awesome, KOA GIFFEY

Hapless_Hans wrote:KOA GIFFEY!

first estimates are too close too call, the Linke also weak and and the verge of not making the 5 percent hurdle into parliament and red-red-green definitively is no majority option as things stand

we need to wait for proper results now, there's the hope the inclusion of mal in votes will mean the result is more left leaning than the estimates

in Berlin, the Greens are close to beating the SPD as the strongest party, that would be pretty fucking awesome, KOA GIFFEY

Could you expect Green victory there ?

Your post proves that you also voted Green I suppose