OT: Who will win the Euros and why?

LOL I know Mole

The Franchise wrote:Spain.

Friendlies are one thing, competitive games are another.

The bulk of the team is Barca, they have to pick and choose at this stage what games they are super motivated for and which they are in 2nd gear.

I think Germany are making a big mistake with this 4141 with Bastian being the holding player. Because of that, I think Spain will take it.

If the Dutch dont play RVP as a 9, let him play deeper with Snijeder in tow and Hunterlaar up front they will look much better too. RVP up front on his own, I dont like.

Interesting dani. Here are my thoughts.

Spain - The central defense can be a weakness unless of course both Puyol and Pique are playing fully match fit at that. Actually the biggest reason why I don't think they will win is because they have already won too much. Remember France 2002. Then again I said they wouldn't win WC 2010. So what do I know. There could be other problems. Mourinho could by then have created so much hatred that some players in the Spanish camp refuse to see the faces of some other players and/or pass the ball to them on the pitch. They will also be heavily targeted with immense negativity and physicality from almost all their opponents. Lack of pace and cutting edge in the final third as I had mentioned before can be a problem.

Germany - Good point. On one side we need to commend Low for trying to make his team play even more beautifully but it's too risky to do this before a major competition. 4-2-3-1 is Germany's best bet. If they had stuck to it they would be on top of my list. It's still possible that he will keep switching the formations based on opposition. I don't think he will play Spain with a 4-1-4-1 because that could easily mean one more case of getting gobbled up by Xaviesta.

Netherlands - Interesting point. That means when all are fit then Kuyt is dropped which is acceptable even though he has done a good job over the years. They also need the double pivot as we had discussed before. Still if Germany mess it up then it really could be their chance. They have been becoming harder ad harder to beat in every tournament since WC 2006. All this steady improvement could pay off.

So here's my list of the top seven. I think France have some very special players but Italy have managed to make their tactics get working sooner and I am actually a little surprised that a coach as good as Laurent Blanc is still struggling to find his best formation and lineup.

1. Netherlands
2. Germany
3. Spain
4. Italy
5. France
6. Portugal
7. England

1-Germany
2-Spain
3-Holand
4-Portugal
5-Italy
6-France
7-England

matpol wrote:You should wait for the group stage draw before you create this topic, alfred. Draw is very important in every tournament and FYI Germany will be in second Pot. http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/08/euro-2012-final-draw-coefficients-12.html Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Russia
Pot 3: Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: France, Denmark, Slovakia, Czech Republic

Imagine a group of Spain/Netherlands, Germany, Portugal and France, even more scary group of death than Group C of Euro 2008 with Netherlands, Italy, France and Romania. Host shouldn't be in First Pot ffs.

As for topic, my Top 3 contenders, in an order: 1- Spain, 2- Netherlands, 3- Germany. I would be shocked if other country than 3 above listed win those Euro. Before WC 2010 I listed Spain, Netherlands and Argentina as my contenders, and I was shocked when people say that Brazil or England were favorite for that WC.

Great post matpol.

1. I am usually the first one to look up such things but this time I had somehow not bothered. Hence the info you have given is very interesting.

2. Excellent point. I am really glad someone has come out and said this openly. It's enough that tournament hosts get to participate without having to qualify which is largely understandable but seeding them is mollycoddling them a bit too much.

Germany stands a chance against Spain imo, they have a very great midfield, Piggy is very good, of course their midfield is nowhere Spains level but enough to challange. And Klose has always been clinical in front of goal for Germany. Spain VS Germany is a 50% 50% imo

messixaviesta wrote:

The Franchise wrote:Spain.

Friendlies are one thing, competitive games are another.

The bulk of the team is Barca, they have to pick and choose at this stage what games they are super motivated for and which they are in 2nd gear.

I think Germany are making a big mistake with this 4141 with Bastian being the holding player. Because of that, I think Spain will take it.

If the Dutch dont play RVP as a 9, let him play deeper with Snijeder in tow and Hunterlaar up front they will look much better too. RVP up front on his own, I dont like.

Interesting dani. Here are my thoughts.

Spain - The central defense can be a weakness unless of course both Puyol and Pique are playing fully match fit at that. Actually the biggest reason why I don't think they will win is because they have already won too much. Remember France 2002. Then again I said they wouldn't win WC 2010. So what do I know. There could be other problems. Mourinho could by then have created so much hatred that some players in the Spanish camp refuse to see the faces of some other players and/or pass the ball to them on the pitch. They will also be heavily targeted with immense negativity and physicality from almost all their opponents. Lack of pace and cutting edge in the final third as I had mentioned before can be a problem.

Germany - Good point. On one side we need to commend Low for trying to make his team play even more beautifully but it's too risky to do this before a major competition. 4-2-3-1 is Germany's best bet. If they had stuck to it they would be on top of my list. It's still possible that he will keep switching the formations based on opposition. I don't think he will play Spain with a 4-1-4-1 because that could easily mean one more case of getting gobbled up by Xaviesta.

Netherlands - Interesting point. That means when all are fit then Kuyt is dropped which is acceptable even though he has done a good job over the years. They also need the double pivot as we had discussed before. Still if Germany mess it up then it really could be their chance. They have been becoming harder ad harder to beat in every tournament since WC 2006. All this steady improvement could pay off.

So here's my list of the top seven. I think France have some very special players but Italy have managed to make their tactics get working sooner and I am actually a little surprised that a coach as good as Laurent Blanc is still struggling to find his best formation and lineup.

1. Netherlands
2. Germany
3. Spain
4. Italy
5. France
6. Portugal
7. England

Well I think Spain are okay in center defence. If Pique is missing, I would Busi. If Puyol is missing, Ramos. I think that is fairly safe and better then say, Holland or Germanys depth.

Sure, there is a fear of Spain simply winning too much. But this Barca team, its another animal and cant be compared to anyone. Barca by now were expected to be "bored" of winning.

Intresting point about Mou. I dont think that will be a factor though. Arbeloa and Ramos both recently have committed simply disgusting acts on Barca players and yet we are yet to see any issues with those. Xabi Alonso did one or two bad tackles, but that more down to his lack of ability then anything dirty I feel.

The physicality and the lack of speed, both issues they survived in the WC, so I see no reasno why they should be any different now.


I agree with you about Germany. Despite my disagreement with the 4141, I put them more or less on the same level as Spain in terms of winning it. I think if they avoid Spain in the competition they win, but if they have to play them, they lose. Its that simple in my mind.

Holland to me are the team that without a doubt punish either of these two who arent att he top of the game. I dont think they will beat either, but if both Germany and Spain slip up, they will be there to win it.

Spain & Mou has no problems. Believe me, I read a Spain blog and they all are very good friends, so scrap that idea, both Arbeloa and Ramos have 0 problems with any Barca player when they go to their NT

omarish wrote:Spain & Mou has no problems. Believe me, I read a Spain blog and they all are very good friends, so scrap that idea, both Arbeloa and Ramos have 0 problems with any Barca player when they go to their NT

Does'nt deserve to play anyway.......

Defense always make a difference in those tournaments, so i will focus my attention on teams that traditionally play defense, but have enough quality in attack to make the difference as well, France and Italy.

Both teams were a mess during the world cup, and they showed nothing. Both team as of now are still far from their potential, but by next summer, i think they will both pose a serious threat to win it all.

France has a remarkable defensive unit, they cant play against weak opposition but they are the kind of team to step it up in tourney, and play like themselves against big teams. Good attacking potential and great defense, even if they have to win by 1-0 they have a shot at going far.

Italy always give me the impression that they dont respect anybody, they have little bit of cockiness to them, and no matter how much you say they suck, they will try to play with balls. Their team is a lot more stable now, so i can see them grinding their way to the semis at least.

Spain is going to have a lot of difficulties winning their title again, imo, they wont be able to. Teams are getting comfortable playing them, and eventhough they always look like they are in 2nd gear in friendlies and such, they are boosting other teams confidence and they will get slapped with a very high amount of competitiveness from the teams they play against.

Despite so many big names at the back, i think Germany is weak defensively, at least compared to those other teams. A great counter side will hurt them.

I will go with the Dutch and Italy as my favorite, followed by France and Spain.

What makes you think Germany are weak defensively Nick?

Also a great counter attacking team will hurt them? the funniest thing about all that is that exactly what Germany are lol.

Immaculate_Mole wrote:What makes you think Germany are weak defensively Nick?

Also a great counter attacking team will hurt them? the funniest thing about all that is that exactly what Germany are lol.

I have watched them play this season quite a bit, and even against weak opposition, they get too much in troubles. Maybe it's a discipline issue but they are playing riskier, and pushing their line higher, leaving sometimes the defenders to deal with danger. That 4141 is some risky tactic, but they might play more conservative with Khedira next to Piggy.

They are a great counter side i agree, but they are starting to play a lot of possession as well. I wouldnt bet on them if they were playing the Dutch with Robben for ex. It's a turning point for them anyway, they came into the world cup with and created a lot of surprises to everyone, not many knew how to handle them. They will go into this one with more teams ready to play them. THey still outtalent 90% of the teams there tho...

I think Germany will win it.

St_Nick09_of_Goal wrote:

Immaculate_Mole wrote:What makes you think Germany are weak defensively Nick?

Also a great counter attacking team will hurt them? the funniest thing about all that is that exactly what Germany are lol.

I have watched them play this season quite a bit, and even against weak opposition, they get too much in troubles. Maybe it's a discipline issue but they are playing riskier, and pushing their line higher, leaving sometimes the defenders to deal with danger. That 4141 is some risky tactic, but they might play more conservative with Khedira next to Piggy.

They are a great counter side i agree, but they are starting to play a lot of possession as well. I wouldnt bet on them if they were playing the Dutch with Robben for ex. It's a turning point for them anyway, they came into the world cup with and created a lot of surprises to everyone, not many knew how to handle them. They will go into this one with more teams ready to play them. THey still outtalent 90% of the teams there tho...

One thing id like to say about the struggling against weaker teams is alot of teams tend to do that perhaps because they know they are superior and feel they can take more risks i would'nt use it as an example to how thier defence would perform against the best.....

Take Pique for example he was very laid back against the smaller teams last year and made quite a few mistakes but when it came down to the big games he was solid as a rock i know iam comparing one player to a whole defensive unit but you can see how mentality would be different regardless....

I do agree on the 4-1-4-1 though its almost too risky in my view i think the 4-2-3-1 suits them the best....


What i would play but i do agree with you that Holland could trouble them especially Sneijder, Robben and RVP.

Before I put France and Italy up there, I need to see more.

I thought about them, because they have clearly improved under their new respective coaches and actually look like they have a plan now.

I think however, they aer just a tier down right now. Italy to me will still struggle against lesser sides. The arent natural athletes, they never were, and now the game is becoming faster and quicker, they are struggling more and more. Before, they had iron defence to rely on. Now, not so much (though they are looking better in this aspect).

France I think with Benz, Ribery and if Remy plays (I like him) with Nasri you have the foundations of a strong attack and of course with Abidal, Sagna, Rami and Mexes you have strong defenders too. M'Villa does a very nice job himself too.

My own issue is the one and only Gourcuff, he has been horrible no matter what the circumstances. If he plays, he literally can ruin it all.

I dont know if the space of the game is going to hurt Italy that much, but you are right about them struggling against smaller teams. I see Pirlo having a fine tournament again if he isnt injured, and imo, one of the players pushing them through. They will figure something in attack with a CF playing along side Cassano, but collectively, they seem to have a very good unit, aware of their strengths and weaknesses, due to the amount of experience they have in the group.

Gourcuff? He isnt going unless he has a wonderful season with Lyon. It's a shame he is in such a slump because he is so talented but he lost it, his game is completely off it's incredible. I remember watching a sports shrink analysing how much he was increasing his work rate, running all over the place due to his lack of confidence and orientation, thus falling short went it came to the creative aspect of football. He needs help. Martin will be there, but he is their only AM. Imo, they need to stop playing Benzema CF because he does too much for that team already, he needs help finishing, and Gameiro is the best CF atm. Ribery-Gameiro-Benzema, with Martin behind.

I hope Gourcuff isnt going, but to be honest I sense the bias with Blanc with him. He used him earlier in his reign, despite him playing poor indiviudally but also not actually a good fit for the players around him.

Even when he had some kind of form, I didnt like him.

We will see, I much prefer Martin already despite barely seeing him.

Lol

Blanc tried to motivate him through the NT at the same time as Benzema, but the end result was complete opposite.

He made it clear that he wanted people to perform to be called up, and now he cant call Gourcuff, i think he is a man of his word.

With the depth in the AM position so limited, he still has a shot at going, if he plays well under Remi, but he will be on the bench.

We will have to see. Becaue France lack depth in this position, I can easily see him being recalled, deserved or not.

If he is called, I could then see him playing, simple because of who he is rep wise compared to Martin.

Everyone says, coaches choose the best players and not the best names, but we have seen time and time again that not to be the case.

We shall see.

Spain seemingly lost all their momentum from the WC by doing poorly in friendlies, but I would still say that they have the best chance of winning it, unless they play Busquets/Albiol as a CB pairing or something.

The Franchise wrote:
Well I think Spain are okay in center defence. If Pique is missing, I would Busi. If Puyol is missing, Ramos. I think that is fairly safe and better then say, Holland or Germanys depth.

Sure, there is a fear of Spain simply winning too much. But this Barca team, its another animal and cant be compared to anyone. Barca by now were expected to be "bored" of winning.

Intresting point about Mou. I dont think that will be a factor though. Arbeloa and Ramos both recently have committed simply disgusting acts on Barca players and yet we are yet to see any issues with those. Xabi Alonso did one or two bad tackles, but that more down to his lack of ability then anything dirty I feel.

The physicality and the lack of speed, both issues they survived in the WC, so I see no reasno why they should be any different now.


I agree with you about Germany. Despite my disagreement with the 4141, I put them more or less on the same level as Spain in terms of winning it. I think if they avoid Spain in the competition they win, but if they have to play them, they lose. Its that simple in my mind.

Holland to me are the team that without a doubt punish either of these two who arent att he top of the game. I dont think they will beat either, but if both Germany and Spain slip up, they will be there to win it.

Great comment dani. Also enjoyed reading the comments posted by some others.

One good point you make is that Germany and Netherlands also lack defensive depth. However does Germany really lack depth that badly? I mean isn't it a bit unpredictable. We have Hummels and Hoewedes who have been in great form. We have Badstuber and J.Boateng who if they perform well could play first choice for Bayern whole season and really profit from that. We have Mertesacker at Arsenal and we need to watch how well he does. I may me missing a few other names. As for Netherlands most of us said before the world cup that their defense is weak but they found a way. I think with their two DM pivot they have learnt how to manage with not so great defenders. One key point here is that neither Germany nor Holland rely on a 33 year old to be the main CB but Spain does.

'Bored of winning' would be an unfair comment for this lot I completely agree. What I actually meant was something else that goes by the 'Law of Averages'.

My Mou comment was tongue in cheek - not meant that seriously but I do have a slight fear that if there is too much bad blood just before the tournament it might have at least a small effect.

Yes they survived physicality and lack of speed and they could do it again as you say but then the more one team with one way of playing wins, the more the chances of them doing it again decreases because people all the time try harder and harder to find more and more ways to combat you.

So for you it's a clear order - Spain > Germany > Holland. Interesting because for me it's much closer. Euros are a notoriously unpredictable tournament and the eventual champion could very well be someone other than these three. However one point that you make is crucial and I agree with it. When faced one on one against Spain, any team would be second favorite. I mean there still isn't a way to outplay Xaviesta in midfield and with all the other quality players around them it is really some task taking on this team. Germany will find it harder because they are a very clean team and if they play 4-1-4-1 their goose could be cooked in no time. Holland on the other hand will use dirty tactics and while they failed last time a bit too closely, they might succeed this time. To those dirty tactics, add the speed and skill of Robben and the precise passing of Sneijder and it makes for a really dangerous opponent. Now as for Germany vs. Holland, I don't know why you think Germany will clearly win. I think it's a bit too close to call.

My quick comments on Italy and France.

Italy - You made some very good points. They don't look likely champions to me but they will fight their way through. I have my doubts if Cassano can do it in big games and if he hasn't played enough during the season that would make it even worse. Their are problems in that team but as some here said they will work for each other and be very competitive.

France - As you said Gourcuff is way off form to start. I say Martin is too raw. So I would likely start Nasri in the center and on the right it could be a forward or a winger depending on what is needed. As I said before I think France have a good amount of talent but they haven't yet found their best lineup and their chances will depend on how much they develop till the tournament starts.

messixaviesta wrote:

The Franchise wrote:
Well I think Spain are okay in center defence. If Pique is missing, I would Busi. If Puyol is missing, Ramos. I think that is fairly safe and better then say, Holland or Germanys depth.

Sure, there is a fear of Spain simply winning too much. But this Barca team, its another animal and cant be compared to anyone. Barca by now were expected to be "bored" of winning.

Intresting point about Mou. I dont think that will be a factor though. Arbeloa and Ramos both recently have committed simply disgusting acts on Barca players and yet we are yet to see any issues with those. Xabi Alonso did one or two bad tackles, but that more down to his lack of ability then anything dirty I feel.

The physicality and the lack of speed, both issues they survived in the WC, so I see no reasno why they should be any different now.


I agree with you about Germany. Despite my disagreement with the 4141, I put them more or less on the same level as Spain in terms of winning it. I think if they avoid Spain in the competition they win, but if they have to play them, they lose. Its that simple in my mind.

Holland to me are the team that without a doubt punish either of these two who arent att he top of the game. I dont think they will beat either, but if both Germany and Spain slip up, they will be there to win it.

Great comment dani. Also enjoyed reading the comments posted by some others.

One good point you make is that Germany and Netherlands also lack defensive depth. However does Germany really lack depth that badly? I mean isn't it a bit unpredictable. We have Hummels and Hoewedes who have been in great form. We have Badstuber and J.Boateng who if they perform well could play first choice for Bayern whole season and really profit from that. We have Mertesacker at Arsenal and we need to watch how well he does. I may me missing a few other names. As for Netherlands most of us said before the world cup that their defense is weak but they found a way. I think with their two DM pivot they have learnt how to manage with not so great defenders. One key point here is that neither Germany nor Holland rely on a 33 year old to be the main CB but Spain does.

'Bored of winning' would be an unfair comment for this lot I completely agree. What I actually meant was something else that goes by the 'Law of Averages'.

My Mou comment was tongue in cheek - not meant that seriously but I do have a slight fear that if there is too much bad blood just before the tournament it might have at least a small effect.

Yes they survived physicality and lack of speed and they could do it again as you say but then the more one team with one way of playing wins, the more the chances of them doing it again decreases because people all the time try harder and harder to find more and more ways to combat you.

So for you it's a clear order - Spain > Germany > Holland. Interesting because for me it's much closer. Euros are a notoriously unpredictable tournament and the eventual champion could very well be someone other than these three. However one point that you make is crucial and I agree with it. When faced one on one against Spain, any team would be second favorite. I mean there still isn't a way to outplay Xaviesta in midfield and with all the other quality players around them it is really some task taking on this team. Germany will find it harder because they are a very clean team and if they play 4-1-4-1 their goose could be cooked in no time. Holland on the other hand will use dirty tactics and while they failed last time a bit too closely, they might succeed this time. To those dirty tactics, add the speed and skill of Robben and the precise passing of Sneijder and it makes for a really dangerous opponent. Now as for Germany vs. Holland, I don't know why you think Germany will clearly win. I think it's a bit too close to call.

My quick comments on Italy and France.

Italy - You made some very good points. They don't look likely champions to me but they will fight their way through. I have my doubts if Cassano can do it in big games and if he hasn't played enough during the season that would make it even worse. Their are problems in that team but as some here said they will work for each other and be very competitive.

France - As you said Gourcuff is way off form to start. I say Martin is too raw. So I would likely start Nasri in the center and on the right it could be a forward or a winger depending on what is needed. As I said before I think France have a good amount of talent but they haven't yet found their best lineup and their chances will depend on how much they develop till the tournament starts.

Well to be honest I dont rate Badstuber, too slow, too cumsly. Boateng is decent as a 4th choice, but not 3rd.

Mertesacker is too slow and against big teams, that will be exploited.

Sure, Spain relyon a 33 year old. But its a 6 game tournament, not an entire season. Even without him, Pique and Ramos is better invidually then anything either Germany or Holland have in the center.

I wouldnt say thats my clear order, it depends alot more on who matches up with who. If Holland play Spain again and Spain dont play at 100% I think they will lose. I think however, if they play Germany, they will win because of Germanys need for posession themselves. However, I think if Germany face Holland, Germany would win because they have an adaptable style, but this tie would be a tougher one to predict for me.

So, I dont see it as clear cut, it depend on how things work with match ups and so forth. I dont like picking winners before the tourny has started, let alone this early, so much is yet to be uncovered.

Agree about Italy.

For France, I personally would play Nasri in the midle, with Ribery left and Remy on the right. I was impressed by him the very first time I saw him and he seems to be a growing force while some other players I feel have faded. Martins has impressed me too, so while he is new to this, I dont think that will work too much against him.

The Franchise wrote:
Well to be honest I dont rate Badstuber, too slow, too cumsly. Boateng is decent as a 4th choice, but not 3rd.

Mertesacker is too slow and against big teams, that will be exploited.

Sure, Spain relyon a 33 year old. But its a 6 game tournament, not an entire season. Even without him, Pique and Ramos is better invidually then anything either Germany or Holland have in the center.

I wouldnt say thats my clear order, it depends alot more on who matches up with who. If Holland play Spain again and Spain dont play at 100% I think they will lose. I think however, if they play Germany, they will win because of Germanys need for posession themselves. However, I think if Germany face Holland, Germany would win because they have an adaptable style, but this tie would be a tougher one to predict for me.

So, I dont see it as clear cut, it depend on how things work with match ups and so forth. I dont like picking winners before the tourny has started, let alone this early, so much is yet to be uncovered.

Agree about Italy.

For France, I personally would play Nasri in the midle, with Ribery left and Remy on the right. I was impressed by him the very first time I saw him and he seems to be a growing force while some other players I feel have faded. Martins has impressed me too, so while he is new to this, I dont think that will work too much against him.

Agree Badstuber and Mertesacker are slow. However if they play alongside a fast attacking CB it may not be that much of a problem. I understand you want Hummels and Howedes to be first choice but for some reason Low has hardly ever used that. Instead he plays Howedes as an RB.

Perhaps S.Ramos can solve Spain's CB problems but I have hardly seen any hint he will be played in the center. He seems to be permanently placed on the right while at CB we struggle to find a half way decent option at times.

Your comments about the one on one clashes are understandable and acceptable.

For France, I don't mind Martins on bench but a start may be too early for him. Having said that though Mesut Ozil led the German attack at the world cup at such a young age without being fazed. So I can't rule such things totally out either.

I will be rooting for Netherlands, but I think Germany will win. France to make semis and knock Spain in Quarters if both teams meet there.

I do fear France simply put their attack is magic and our fullback's while they have performed amazingly well in the past dont seem to be doing well as of late.Ramos is no longer a fullback, he is a centre-back I really don't know if he should play if he dosen't play there.

Ribery-Benzema-Ben Arfa

Will be a nightmare.

Netherlands? - I fear them less than France, they need the ball to be effective and their defense won't be difficult to break down.They can beat us but I don't fear them that much.

Germany - Yea , no explanation needed, Their pace and skill on the counter-attack will be threatening, while they have players who can remain calm and keep the ball and break us down.Once again alot rests on the fullbacks to provide a bit extr in attack to break them down.

What I saw last night dosen't change my mind. I have come to rely on Xavi much less to break down defenses after his performance at the world cup. Given a free role he chose to consolidate possession more than anything else, I dobt Del Bosque will be stupid enough to give him the same free role once again.

Our attakers are more direct and assertive than Barca's , especially those that may actually come off the bench so we have dimensions.

Guys, I hereby predict that Spain will crash out in the group stages. Remember you heard it here first. There will be a lot of parking the bus against Spain, although not of that extreme a nature as seen last night, and they won't even have Messi. Since the best players are not in the same form as before and that fire that was there in the team in WC 2010 seems to be almost completely extinguished long back, it all spells near certain doom. Real Madrid I think will likely win the UCL but they hardly have an out and out match winner to contribute to the national side with the sole exception of Iker Casillas. If Barca is not at it's best as is the case now then Spain is in much more trouble.

Park the bus won't work to be honest.

We have more attacking versatility than any other team, tiki taka and posession is the core of both our defense and attack but it opens up room for other traditional areas of the pitch to be exploited by guys like Navas , Mata , Llorente , Soldado and Cesc.