Milan v Arsenal: Arquitecto's Comprehensive Neutral Man's Perspective, Breakdown & Pre-Analysis

For the few of you Arsenal fans that know me, you would know how much I respect you team along with my occasional given support in this forum for Arsenal based on my fanship of Wenger and his team and general sympathy during the hard times since Liverpool fans are known to do so as well.

If you think this is a jinx thread, guess again, this will be exactly the most in detailed breakdown between the teams. Plus, I have to much respect for RG and Co. to pull increasingly believed in jinx factor.

Which is why I will provide you a neutral perspective complete with the breakdown on by it simply does look likely at all for Milan prevailing against Arsenal. I've done this so because its quite obvious some are anxious here for the tie along with some growing weary with the increasingly embarrassing, ignorant and biased point of view from Milan fans. Which is why I will spare you the time.


The last significant fixture Milan face Arsenal was in 22 Feb 2008:

Arsenal's squad was Lehmann, Sagna, Gallas, Toure, Clichy, Eboue, Flamini, Fabregas, Eduardo, Adebayor, and Hleb with the subs being Senderos, Walcott and Bendtner.

Milan's was: Kalac, Oddo, Nesta, Kaladze, Maldini, Ambrosini, Pirlo, Seedorf, Kaka, Gattuso and Pato with Subs being: Jankulovski, Gilardino and Emerson.

The match ended a tense 0-0 but with Arsenal arguably the better side with magnificent performances Flamini, Fabregas and the commanding Gallas.

The 2nd leg squad for Arsenal was around the same except for Almunia for Lehmann, Diaby for Eduardo, and Senderos for the injured Toure with Subs being: Walcott and Gilberto

Milans was around the same except for Inzaghi instead of Seedorf in the 2nd leg.


The match ended 0-2 at the San Siro with Milan conceding that Arsenal were the better team and deserved to go through on all counts.

This was a Milan team who were champions last year yes, yet we all knew in 2007, the sinews were on their last legs and in 2008 we NEEDED to reinforce, rejuvenate and replenish the squad. We then got Emerson and Gilardino Since then, we have bought only forwards yet have hilariously failed to reinvigorate our midfield with only bargain bosman buys and player not needed for Carletto, Leonardo and even Ancelotti.

That year Arsenal finished 3rd and Milan and Milan payed with us ending 5th that year domestically.

The point of highlighting the previous encounter was that Arsenal are arguably somewhat of a better team with better players despite the departure of Fabregas and a couple of others.

Milan on the other hand? This is our worst team since 1983, and even worse than the Milan beaten by Arsenal in 2008 as there isn't exactly a substantial difference between the Arsenal of then and Arsenal of now bar some mentality changes and squad.

But try to understand my rather simplistic logic applied here.


Arsenal FC

I won't elaborate too much on Arsenal considering all of you probably know far more than I do of the team and its capability despite myself following them match after match.

But here is the squad most accurately predicted against Milan:

4-2-3-1
Szczesny

Sagna-Vermaelen-Koscielny-Gibbs/Santos

Song-Arteta
Walcott-Ramsey/Rosicky-AOX/Arshavin

RvP

Carl Jenkinson (Back)
Last Updated: 10 February
Speaking on February 9, Arsene Wenger said: "He is not far from full training, maybe two weeks. [He is running] normally."

Last Game: Arsenal 3-0 W.B.A. - November 05, 2011

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Emmanuel Frimpong (Knee)
Last Updated: 10 February
Speaking on February 9, Arsene Wenger said: "He had surgery on Thursday night unfortunately. He had what we have seen so many times; one cruciate [goes] and then the other as well. It was a case for Pires, for Edu and now Frimpong. I believe that it is unfortunate. The fortunate situation is that we could have surgery straight away and that this threat over his head is now gone. It's a tough time because he was doing very well at Wolves. But hopefully we can get him back in the Autumn."

Last Game: Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal - December 21, 2011

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Jack Wilshere (Ankle)
Last Updated: 01 February
Jack suffered a setback on his way to recovery, but is not ruled out for the season. The injury is in a different area to his previous surgery, and it will be reassessed in around two weeks time by our medical team and medical experts who have worked together throughout Jack’s recovery.

Last Game: Arsenal 1-1 New York Red Bulls - July 31, 2011

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Abou Diaby (Hamstring)
Last Updated: 30 January
Speaking on January 29, Arsene Wenger said: "He is coming back on Tuesday. He has been in a rehab centre and has worked very hard. We feel that when he comes back he will need three more weeks of training, so the earliest he will play will be the end of February."

Last Game: Arsenal 1-1 Fulham - November 26, 2011


Andre Santos (Ankle)
Last Updated: 20 January
Andre is currently recovering from surgery to ligament damage in his ankle. Speaking on January 19, Arsene Wenger said: "He is two months away. He is progressing well. We planned 12 weeks and he is on schedule."

Last Game: Olympiacos 3-1 Arsenal - December 06, 2011

From what I know, Arsenal have played a formation much closer to the 4-2-3-1 than a 4-3-3 compared to last year along with the fact that there is a distinct zonal marking implementation which has been a remarkable success to Arsenal's defensive improvements this season. The 4-3-3 gives Arsenal a more fluid and dynamic look, but this 4-2-3-1 is the mark of Arsenals' more disciplined and defensively improved performances this season.

Arsenal did begin the season with some underwhelming results (Loss to Liverpool, draws) along with the fact that the overworked Wenger had to shed more light on two key players future in the form of Samir Nasri and of course, the never ending saga of Cesc Fabregas. This caused some deduced team morale within the team along with the fact that Fabregas was exposed as being not fit to lead captain the Arsenal side as he always was one to be more the 'friend' of the players rather than their leader. It is speculated Wenger gave him captaincy in order to anchor Cesc within the team and not leave Arsenal, but in the end he yearned for his home all to much while Ca$hri could not help himself to more cash and chose the easy route out of Arsenal towards Manchester Arabia. In the end, Cesc Fabregas still holds a place within Arsenal fans hearts as his reason was understandably and eventual, sadly not Samir (I perform for half a season) Nasri.

This left the the fans underwhelmed and weary, the players disappointed and Wenger counting his options. He was clearly left with a squad either to young or inexperienced to carry such a load that was left by some of their more dangerous players. So within the winter after legions of fans demanding signings; Wenger budged as here are the signings and how they have fared so far in order of effectiveness:


1. Mikel Arteta: Hands down Arsenal's best signing. The Basque maestro was finally picked up (rescued) from the sinking ship that was Everton on a last minute basis for 10 million pounds. Arteta for Everton played in an AM/10 role that utilized his close control and dribbling in spaces, superb final ball, razor long shot, and vision. In Arsenal, Wenger has clearly deployed him in a deeper role which is more like a Pep Guardiola role and similar to Arteta's original position when growing up with Xabi Alonso. Since then, it has worked wonders as on the field for Arsenal, he has a mind boggling pass completion rate of 94%, he keeps things tidy and simple yet 70% of plays come and go through him with his metronome tempo dictation, sharp passing and crosses, vision to create space and plays and the occasional shot which has resulted in 3 goals so far. This has also allowed Alex Song to venture into space to utilize his own attacking qualities. The deep position takes away from chances of Arteta using his final ball and dribbling, but it has kept Arsenal well and organized as without him, they do not look the same team.

2. Per Mertesacker: The highly rated starter of Germany's national team came into Arsenals' team and immediately warmed up to Arsenal fans with his commanding presence, technical defense, canceling out of the aerial threats and has brought a general composure to Arsenal's back line. He has been exposed to his dead slow pace as warned, yet the much improved Koscielny has done superbly to blend into a partnership that somewhat hides the German's weaknesses. So far, he is a sure starter and has even formed a better partnership than the Koscielny-Vermaelen partnership while Vermaelen covers on left. Yet he will be injured for the Arsenal game after seemingly tripping over his ankle from the disgraceful Sunderland pitch.

3. Gervinho: Winning a double in France, Gervinho has amazed the Arsenal crowd with his mazy runs and impressive flair. He has provided to be a superb partner to Robin van Persie and assisting him numerous times. Gervinho has frustrated fans with his lack of final ball and decision making, yet currently in the AFCON, you can't help but feel gooners miss him despite the impressive showings of Chamberlain

4. Alex-Oxlaide Chamberlain: Many people questioned this signing as he came in for 12 million as fans once again bemoaned another young signing meant only for the future. Yet, AOX has become a cult hit with his all round play which involves his well.....fans have yet to see what he can't do! He has seamlessly slotted in the left spot as even overtaking the lazy Arshavin in that role. Some would even call him to start above walcott on the right!

5. Andre Santos: Questionable signing at times. For all his offensive skill and flair, Santos has equally frustrated fans with his impulsive defending, awful positioning and unfit physique which has contributed to some of his bloated performances. Not to say this has been a bad signing, yet you can't help but feel Arsenal fans have forgotten somewhat of him as Vermaelen has been solid in his LB role.

6. Park Chu Young: Brought in to ease tension between North Korea and Wenger during Wenger fight in the Korean War. Chu-Young will leave to join the North Korean Army within 2 years now

So the implementation of AOX, Arteta and Mertesacker has realistically made the true difference for Arsenal and despite recent inconsistencies within the team, there is no doubting the impact made by them along with the reliable, technical and versatile Arsenal youth product, Coquelin who just recently signed a contract much to the relief of gooners.

Milan


Our Best squad with starters: 4-3-1-2

Abbiati
Abate-Nesta-Silva-Mesbah/Zambrotta
Aquilani-MvB- Nocerino/Seedorf
Prince
Ibra-Cassano

(Note: No Pato due to the incompatibility with Ibra while Robinho and SES compete as of now)

Our line-up most definitely against Arsenal at the San Siro

Amelia
Abate-Silva-Mexes-Mesbah/Zambrotta
Ambrosini/Urby-MvB-Nocerino
Seedorf/Urby(probably Seedorf)
Ibra-SES/Robinho (probably Binho)

Our manager is Massimiliano Allegri as you all know. He took over shortly after Leonardo was sacked after a disagreement with Berlusconi. Allegri immediately implemented his famed 4-3-3 at Cagliari which involved flowing and attacking football with the Sardinians. At Milan it had mixed result, as the 4-3-3 did not suit the team due to our age old midfield and lack of mobility as the usual midfield desired was Gattuso-Pirlo-Seedorf, which was also used in 2003 CL final. That old. Allegri than learned from his mistakes and adapted to a 4-3-1-2/4-1-2-1-2 formation which involved Gattuso, Seedorf and the immense Mark van Bommel in the system as the latter formed the fulcrum of the system and brought his command and experience to the midfield, while Allegri had to adapt in Pirlo's 8 month long injury while Boateng became a revelation in his "Modern TQ" role in his tenacious defense, flair and dynamism. Up front Pato and Robinho were usual starters in rotation while Zlatan Ibrahimovic since his arrival to Milan has been playing a 10role/false 9 with Milan as not only he contributes with his key goals, but his incredibly underrated creativity, vision and passing. In the first 3 months he played as a CF yet evolved into his original role and acts as the front flanks crux and to compensate for our aging and underwhelming midfield. In the backline Allegri compiled the world class Nesta-Silva partnership while Ignazio Abate, previously a headless chicken has evolved in one of the best defensive and old school right backs in Europe. While our LB spot last season was still yearning for a reliable one since the retirement of Maldini.


Our signings for 2011/12 in order of effectiveness:

1.Stephan El Shaaraway: Being named Serie B player of the year last year after carrying Padova on his back, Milan snapped up SES on half purchase from owners Genoa. He barely played in the beginning of the season until he was under the wing of Allegri to develop. Since then, the 18 year old has caught Milan by storm. The trequartista/winger has it all. He is our Alex Oxlaide. He has literally everything. and I mean EVERYTHING. Only problem is that his physique is so frail it is once said he was swept away by a cold Milan winter storm. One for the future and future world class player.

2. Philippe Mexes: It was a skeptical signing as Mexes already at the age of 28-29 was not wanted since we wanted more younger and less developed signings along with ones that don't have a temper and discipline problems. Yet, such is the case similar to MvB, Cassano, Ibra, Robinho, etc, he has shown to be far more disciplined and less card prone than imagined. He has even given the world class Alessandro Nesta a run for his money with his composed and dominant backline performances while seamlessly slotting in a partnership with Nesta and Silva. Superb signing is France's Captain.



Alberto Aquilani: The italian, signed on loan from Liverpool will only be praised with mixed results since we were actually expected a world class signing in the mold of Fabregas, Schweinsteger or young talents like Hamsik, Ganso or Pastore. Yet its unfair to criticize considering Aquilani has done fairly well and has shown how technically capable he is with his passing and vision. Yet its obvious Milan have yearned for his calm and technical presence since he has been injured for 2 months and is unlikely to return for the 1st leg.


3.Antonio Nocerino aka Nocerinho aka Nocerao: I personally am not a fan of him I'll let you know. Yet him being a last minute signing and 500k for an Italian national who is only 25-26 is a great bargain. He has performed well under circumstances with his surprising goal tally (9 this year) and his energetic and combative displays in the absence of Gattuso. He is at times to timid at the tackle, tends to get confused, and doesn't exactly scream technical skill. Yet he has proven an efficient and reliable midfielder as Allegri wanted a Mezalla (LCM).

4. Djamel Mesbah: Nobody expected such a reliable LB. We shipped out the overrated Taye Taiwo (on loan to QPR) for him and since then he has been our best LB with his excellent tactical sense and link up, finesse crossing, solid reading and defense. He is only iffy in positioning at times yet he is a sure starter above Luca Antonini and will compete with Didac Vila once he returns from loan from Espanyol. A Nocerino like signing.

The rest are Alex Merkel who is a technically superb midfielder at the age of 18 yet is injured for 2 months and unlikely to return for the 2nd leg. He was brought in for the injury crisis and is desperately needed for Milan. Then there is Maxi Lopez who like Aquilani, is underwhelming but only compared to the alternative. He is an allround and underrated player who is essentially our only true 9 and impressed Milan fans with his goal and assist to save our team over the weekend. Other notables are Taye Taiwo who is could not handle the Serie A's intense strategic play, and then our Best signing by far, Sulley Ali Muntari. He wasn't chosen by Allegri for the CL so have a sigh of relief.


So as for Milan 2011/12, it has been a relatively underwhelming season by Allegri's and Milans standards. Why? Allegri has been criticized for not varying between 2 formations as many suggest a 4-2-3-1 or Christmas tree. Yet most of these genius simply do not know the other formations cannot be used by our team for many reasons as it would be suicide. The prime reason is that Galliani has failed to provide the midfield reinforcements that were needed as Nocerino is not good enough for Allegri's technically demanding system, Aquilani is largely impressive yet needs more mobility and technique around him as MvB despite his own technique, is too immobile now along with the occasional use of Seedorf. Yet what has actually cost us is the injuries of Abbiati, Yepes, Nesta,Strasser, Flamini, Boateng, Aquilani, Merkel, Pato, Gattuso and Antonio Cassano. Most of them are not key players, yes. Yet, many of them are starters and key to the system yet you may ask Allegri should perform with the depth he has? Our true depth players have been injured as well. We have been left with a hilariously past it Massimo Ambrosini, Urby Emanuelsson who is a winger (our system does NOT suit wingers) and is too one footed to thrive, Robinho who despite his skill and playmaking has cost us 70 games from his misses, Clarence Seedorf, who if is played more than twice a week, will infinitely be rendered it 'Slowdorf' who is a shadow of the player he is even at the age of 36. Its the difference between Seedorf's 1st leg performance against Tottenham, and than his masterclass performance in the 2nd leg dominating their whole midfield. Then we have Flamini who is perpetually injured. Gattuso despite his waned pace, he provides the tenacity and audacious performances to hound to midfield like no other. Strasser, another YOUNG and mobile DM along with Merkel whos injury once again takes away from the technicality of the midfield. Aquilani for obvious reasons. Cassano who was Milan's best player before his heart condition. Boateng for his multi-dimensional talents, Pato who was coming back into form and provides much in the front and the others are merely for depth. As mentioned, Galliani's refusal to reinforce and replenish our squad has been disgraceful as he is also responsible for shipping out Pirlo due to his refusal to lower the wages.

So why will Arsenal go through against Milan?


Key battles:

Sagna will be providing the essential width while linking up with Theo Walcott. They will most probably face Antonio Nocerino combined with Mesbah as I am not confident of this as Nocerino is a B2B despite the common misconception that he is a DM while Mesbah for all his skill, is has 0 European experience and I do not see him performing at such a stage at this moment without the experience. You may be thinking Zambrotta, but here is the problem, Zambrotta in his prime was WORLD CLASS. In attack in defense, anywhere. Zambro now is slower than Mertesacker. His only saving grace is his ridiculously high football IQ in which he even marked Dani Alves out of both legs. Yet with the pacy Sagna and incredibly fast Walcott, there is only so much he can do.

On the left for Arsenal, it will be Gibbs/Coquelin paired with AOX. Lets elaborate on that as Gibbs despite his incomplete and inconsistent defense is actually an impressive offensive fullback while his pace combined with AOX's talent can cause some considerable talent to Milan who will thwart them back with from what it looks like, Ambrosini and Abate. Where I am confident of this is Ignazio Abate as he has marked out Ronaldo, Pedro, Villa, Et'o and a decent job on Messi as well. Where he may fail is the lately atrocious defensive performances of the fatigued and immobile Massimo Ambrosini. This is point number 2 to keep in mind on how Arsenal have the advantage. You may be thinking Urby will be a variation of Ambrosini yet this will even further hurt us as Urby being a natural winger has been poor for us since the system simply does not suit him.

In the center we will see Arteta and Song face MvB and Seedorf as the latter will play TQ in the absence of Prince. MvB is immense when rested yet he has been largely fatigued and been exposed for pace time and time again. Arteta is known destroy the technical/tactical DMs like Mvb but who lack pace. Further elaborating, Arteta is capable of two things; either maneuvering his way our of marking with his close control in pressure, or out passing the midfield and it doesn't help when we have Seedorf as TQ who has exposed our defense more than anyone can know. The immobile center will give license to Song (Bilong) to even further venture with his attacking qualities since he clearly will not be overwhelmed by our midfield and while Arteta keeps it calm and organized in the back, Song can utilize his deadly final ball and will not even need to provide defensive cover for the already defensively efficient Arteta. At times, Arsenal have struggled against midfields that overwhelm them similar to Valencia against Barca, yet they will not face such a presence along with the fact that Song won't even have to track back to his usual duties.

Up front we will have a line-up predicted as Ibra, Robinho and SES with a variation possibly of only Ibra and Robinho, or Ibra and SES.

The most effective will be Ibra-SES with Robinho given a free role yet we most likely wont see the 3 man attack as Seedorf (and possibly Urby) will be as TQ.

Ibra is able to combine sufficiently with anyone but Pato as his partnership is deadly with Cassano, SES and Robinho. Yet we must remember the increasingly fatigued and injured midfield has been our bane and we will not see that effectiveness that was seen with the fit and ready midfield of our starters. I cannot predict the outcome of Ibra and Co. vs Verm and Kos as this is incredibly ignorant to predict between such high level of football players in their face off. But guess what, this will also be decided by the midfield and guess whose midfield will dominate?

So why will Arsenal go through against Milan?

Milan since 2008 has struggled against fast, pacy teams with solid wing attack. There have been many exceptions, yet we have been exposed time and time again due to the age of our midfield. The only thing that has been our saving grace is Allegri's tactics and the incredible football IQ of our players to compensate for the lack of pace. Allegri has the system optimized so that fullbacks can provide the width for our narrow formation, yet it doesn't help that our full backs despite their proficient tactical link up play with the mids, cannot provide the attack needed as it simply not a part of their arsenal. The midfield? I explained yet the only plus is our front flank which has been praised for being one of the most composed front lines as this has essentially acted as our midfield. Maybe its through being used to being under serviced from the midfield combined with the sheer technical prowess of our front players. Overall we are actually a possession side yet we have increasingly failed to create chances for our front, once again due to the midfield. Yet since the injuries, the toll has been to much to handle as we now look slow, cumbersome and less inspired of ideas as our form has dropped SHOCKINGLY. You may be thinking Barcelona, yet Milan have been historically engineered to handle such sides like Barca with their nuances of TF, Tika taka and possession. Sadly, when you are against such disparity of pace and youth in Arsenal compared to Milan, there is not much you can do unfortunately.

Yet there is only so much the teams fatigued legs can do along with the 13 injuries of our squad.

I just cannot see this paper thin squad with rather false depth actually even giving Arsenal a hard job especially when we have been outran and out muscled by some mid-table Serie A teams. Conclusively, I have matched up all the key battles, capabilities of the CURRENT squad that will be fielded and absolutely NOTHING adds up for Milan in any sense of the word. I don't even need stats to prove this. You may be pointing out Milan's lack of big game wins, but this is a misconception as our IN FORM and FIT, we can beat anyone, yet we haven't been IN FORM and FIT for quite a while.

2nd leg? We may have Aquilani, Pato, Boateng, Merkel back along with some of our form regained. Yet the same can be said of Arsenal especially when the all talented Wilshere, who is the type of player our midfield fears, is making recovery and will be back to face us. Even then, Arsenal will have the advantage based on reasons I can elaborate if you are curious.

You may be thinking much of this is arbitrary, or negative or the fact that this IS football. Yet there is a time to be hopeful and a time to accept some of the more realistic factors.

I personally won't be anywhere near as upset if Arsenal go through compared to Tottenham as mostly for reasons of semi-acceptance along with my soft spot for the Gunners. But here it is.

I have many more that I had on the finer to add yet am forgetting due to the size of this article. Yet feel free to remind me and ask questions.

I could be wrong on some counts yet I highly doubt it. I do invite Milan fans and Gooners alike to challenge my view and perspective.

Very well written . I must say that Galliani is at fault with the current state of our team as cheap and useless signings won't make us great again. Arsenal is favorite to win, and I hope this loss makes the stupid management realize that Milan needs to strengthen a lot in the midfield. My prediction is 1-2 (Ibra, 2x Van Persie).

Arq, superb article ( yeah, more than a post) You described the situation better than any journo out there that I know. From tactical point of view it will come down to the battle on the wings and through the middle. Milan will attack through the middle but Arteta and Song are able to neutraliue the threats. On the other hand Lolcott,RVP and Ox are too much for Milan fullbacks. Abate looked average too me all season long. I made a thread that Arsenal will progress, I believe it will come down to wing play in the end. You pointed out already.
Superb job

Very good post, Arq, though there's something I should point out:

6. Park Chu Young: Brought in to ease tension between North Korea and Wenger during Wenger fight in the Korean War. Chu-Young will leave to join the North Korean Army within 2 years now

Unless there's a joke I'm not getting, Park is from South Korea, not North Korea.

Anyway, nit-picking aside, I feel you may be giving us a little too much credit.

On paper, it does look like our younger midfield would get the best of Milan's older one, but experience counts for an awful lot in these games and Milan's midfield has plentiful amounts of that. Arteta has been great, but in recent weeks Song hasn't been at his best and we all know about Ramsey.

The fullbacks will play a big role in who controls the ball, also. If Milan push both fullbacks up it'll give them extra-men which will assist them in keeping possession. Our wingers don't track back well, so that could be an area Milan could exploit.

However, if we push our fullbacks up and let our wingers tuck in a little bit I think we'll control the ball. I think we'd be able to do so without having to worry too much about caught on the counter, whereas Milan would worry about the pace of Chamberlain and Walcott and leaving space in behind for them to exploit.

This will certainly be the most interesting tactical aspect of the tie. While I'm sure the attention will be on van Persie and Ibrahimovic, the real key battle is in midfield and down the flanks.

It's an odd thing to say, but I'd be more confident if Milan had more possession than us, as I don't feel we're dangerous enough whilst keeping the ball. I feel our best way of scoring would be on the counter.

Furthermore, I feel that playing a counter-attacking game would see our defence perform better. If Song plays a more defensive role, he'll be able to keep tabs on Boateng, while Arteta and Ramsey/Rosicky focus more on the transitions. Song's performance as a pure DM away in Dortmund is still fresh in my mind and it was because of that that we came away with a good result.

That also allowed us to play deeper. Koscielny and Vermaelen are quick, but I think we're much better as a defensive unit defending deep and not leaving many gaps at the back. Last time we tried to push up against Ibrahimovic he scored twice against us, so I feel it's important for us to limit the space and thus limit the influence he can have on the game.

We've gotten good results in tough places this season in the Champions League by playing down the flanks, playing mostly on the counter and being tight in defence. Hopefully, we'll do the same again in Milan.

One of the best articles I have read.

We respect Milan and we know it is going to be a tough game. I think its 50-50 now. We would take a 1-1 away any day and if Walcott is effective Milan will suffer, if Milan some how wont be hard though can contain Waclott Arsenal will suffer.

We will have our best CB and maybe LB playing which is big boost for us. Containing Ibra wont be easy and we know he is Milan#1 danger man. I dont know if its a good thing or bad thing that Ibra had a week rest.

I hope it will be a good game not a boring ass game like when we played Marseille which was so boring.

So...is it time to build Arq a statue yet?

Arq...

You are the reason why I dont troll Milan and Liverpool...

You are like my angel stopping me doing that.

I love you (homo or no homo).

Unfortunately, booty calling now, will probably write a couple paragraphs to summarize your post tomorrow.

Peace out and good luck!

Arq -

Great article and gave me a lot of ingisghts about the Milan squad. However, I agree with Jay that you are giving our midfield more credit than is due.

I still feel it is a 50-50 chance.

Oh btw, I don't think Wilshere is back for the second leg. Could you tell us what your other reasons were, even if briefly?

Nice article.. Gave me some info about Milan...
But even our main problems lie in creating chances.. And when it comes to consistency we beat Chelsea and struggle to score against relegation teams..

Excellent read Arquitecto. Good insight.

Fortunately, I watch all the major European leagues every week, so I have seen Milan play for the past however many years.

I like Allegri, talented manager.

But as you point out - Milan struggle against pace. It showed badly last year when Spurs won at the San Siro, and Arsenal will have to use that to their advantage.

Abate? I know he is highly rated in Italy, even if Maggio is better imo, but Abate has made bad mistakes - particularly in Milan derbies in recent times costing goals.

I can't wait for the game.

Iceman wrote:So...is it time to build Arq a statue yet?

There isn't enough bronze in England to perfectly capture Arq's visage

You meant abs right?

As for the game it should be a cracker, two big teams going at it and I'll be almost honoured to watch it

I do think Arq is selling Milan short, they are a different team when they hear that anthem, it's as if something goes off in their heads when they hear it. I'm speaking from experience of course ()

For those unaware - Flamini, Inzaghi, Gatusso, Cassano + Muntari all NOT in Milan Champions League squad.

I don't follow Serie A, but what's the difference between this Milan team and the team who got bored off the park against the Yids?

A more cohesive unit I would guess. Allegri has them well drilled.

I personally think Arsenal's chances of victory will depend on:

a) Whether their CB's can keep at least one clean sheet in the tie. I'm talking about the gritty dirty work, corners, rebounds, half chances etc.

b) How well their fullbacks go forward to create 2v1 situations.

Milan play narrow and like Arq has mentioned they struggle against teams with natural width... something spuds had last year (Although Milan could have won that tie if it wasn't for some bad luck) Width is also something Arsenal have this year (and pretty much every year since Wenger took the helm).

However Allegri will probably know this as well. I expect some sort of tactical set up that would help Milan overcome that. What that would be is up for debate, personally I would expect them to press early on like they did vs Barcelona. Try to force a mistake and then defend some sort of lead until the game ends.

what a Man.so much Respect Arq
i also not thinking about dominating possession
would be pretty content if we go with counter attacking style and get a decent result(score draw)so forcing Milan to come out and attack in 2nd leg
i doubt if Gibbs is ready(both match sharpness and mentally)
coquelin will do decent job if picked
although what i fear from chambo-coq combo is their lack of experience at this level
i wish just we dont concede early and score first

Excellent quality 'article'!

Firstly, I really liked the fact that Arq looked back at the February 2008 clashes between the sides to provide a background to this game. Looking at the team lists, it is clear that both squads have changed drastically.

For Milan, this was largely due to being on the (very steep) downhill after European conquest in 2007. The old legends, whilst still technically great, lacked the physique to match the modern, pacy attacks of Arsenal's youngsters.

Pato was then by far the youngest member of the squad and was clearly unable to carry the team in a Kaka-esque fashion, which was what was unfairly expected from him as a consequence of successive periods of poor transfer market policy from management.

Arsenal were ultimately superior, despite Milan surviving an end-to-end battle at the Emirates which included Adebayor firing an open header over the bar in the last minute of the game. Even at the San Siro, the remnants of our legendary back-four held out for 84 minutes, poor goalkeeping and a great Fabregas long-shot cost us.

My main criticism of the analysis for the upcoming games is that the outlook was slightly pessimistic for Milan...

I cannot see Arsenal having more possession than Milan in the San Siro. Milan's midfield, whilst imperfect, is designed to keep possession and deliberately leaves space for overlapping full-backs. Assuming Abate and Mesbah play, this is exactly what will happen. Also, I doubt Wenger will want possession; he will probably look to catch Milan off-guard on the counter instead and grab a valuable away goal to take back to the Emirates. I admit that don't watch a whole lot of Arsenal, however what Wenger has said in the press and GoonerJay29's response above seems to agree with these tactics.

As for the midfielders themselves, it is clear that whilst Milan's lack mobility, Arsenal's lack experience. What will happen is really anyone's guess. Seedorf and Ambrosini are definite weaknesses, although this will depend on which Seedorf and Ambrosini turn up; the fresh and recovered ones, or the ones who look tired and worn-out? Their inability to play two good games in a week due to their age and fitness has been well noted by Milan fans.

Walcott and Ox will surely be a great threat to Milan if Abate and Mesbah push up too much, however the same could be said if Gibbs strays out of position against Stefan El Shaarawy, who contrary to Arq's post, will be the favourite to start rather than Robinho. Only Allegri's tendancy to prefer experience over youth in these situations will prevent him from doing so. This is because whilst SES is completely inexperienced in the Europe, he has been electric in the league recently, whereas the Brazilian has looked flat for most of the season. In any case, SES will surely get some substantial game-time.

Personally, the key for Milan is pre-game... we have Boateng, Nesta and Pato all racing against the clock to be fit for this game. These three players are potential game-changers for Milan on their day and are they type who really thrive on a big occasion.

Anyway, that's my two cents. Once again, great post Arq.

Great great post. I think you have got it spot on. I think arsenals center 3 will do what they do best and dominate Milans midfield no question. However i also think this tie will be won or lost for arsenal on the wings. If AOX and Walcott have the better of the Milan fullbacks as you have supposed then Van persie will be getting good service and for me thats game over for Milan. I can see Milan scoring though as they have so much talent upfront. But i cant see them being able to put many past a very good back 5 of Szczesny, Sagna, Vermaelen, Koscielny and Gibbs. I do see gibbs being the weak link though if he plays which im assuming he is.

For this away leg i can see arsenal winning 1-2

They told me Arq was GOAT.

I understand now. Great post.

I can see Arsenal going attacking mode from the start.

With Ramsey they play more of a 4-2-3-1 and it does match up with Allegries 4312.none will have midfield superiority but on the wings its an another story.Milan leaves alot of space on the wings with their 4312 formation ,one big draw back of that formation as it is difficult to block teams who has pacy wingers counter attacking.Milan struggling against English teams in recent years is no coincidence,leaving space on wings for quick counter attacking teams in England is nothing better than suicidal.

Another example is garrido's Villarreal played 4312 against bayern and got completely destroyed by their Bayerns pacy and tricky wingers.

Once opposition teams Fullback goes up to support winger it makes a 2 vs 1 situation at wings,it can be argued the midfielders will slide in to help but its not always possible especially on quick breaks.

Milan will not be able to mark Arsenals wing backs and i predict 55+ possession for Arsenal in this match.Marking wing backs is one best way to stop opponents holding on the ball.

I expect a 1-1 draw though,milan will score in second half.

Tigole wrote:
Very well written . I must say that Galliani is at fault with the current state of our team as cheap and useless signings won't make us great again. Arsenal is favorite to win, and I hope this lose makes the stupid management realize that Milan needs to strengthen a lot in the midfield. My prediction is 1-2 (Ibra, 2x Van Persie).

Thank you Tigole. As for Gallaini, he has done poorly so far in convincing Milan fans he will reinforce as he also fails to realize the emergency for the midfield.

Immortal Babun wrote:Arq, superb article ( yeah, more than a post) You described the situation better than any journo out there that I know. From tactical point of view it will come down to the battle on the wings and through the middle. Milan will attack through the middle but Arteta and Song are able to neutraliue the threats. On the other hand Lolcott,RVP and Ox are too much for Milan fullbacks. Abate looked average too me all season long. I made a thread that Arsenal will progress, I believe it will come down to wing play in the end. You pointed out already.
Superb job

Thanks Babun. Although I need to learn to write less and say more.

The problem with Milan is that we CANT attack even down the middle as our midfield cannot decide whether to link up with the fullbacks or deliver it down the middle. This is because our mid is simply to slow and immobile to run past a midfield or reach certain balls passed. I'm actually confident if Nesta-Silva start they can handle RvP, I can't say the same about Walcott or AOX though. Which is why this worries me. As for Abate, he has only had his concentration lapses yet has given equally superb performances. He will need to be on full focus on wednesday.

Raptorgunner wrote:One of the best articles I have read.

We respect Milan and we know it is going to be a tough game. I think its 50-50 now. We would take a 1-1 away any day and if Walcott is effective Milan will suffer, if Milan some how wont be hard though can contain Waclott Arsenal will suffer.

We will have our best CB and maybe LB playing which is big boost for us. Containing Ibra wont be easy and we know he is Milan#1 danger man. I dont know if its a good thing or bad thing that Ibra had a week rest.

I hope it will be a good game not a boring ass game like when we played Marseille which was so boring.

Thank you so much Raptor.

As for Walcott, the best way he can effect Milan is more through his off the ball movement. To be honest he isn't dangerous enough ON THE BALL to TRULY be effective against the tactically astute Milan side. Yet off the ball, since we play Zonal, he can take Milan fullbacks/CBs out of position with his laser fast speed.

Won't be 50-50 though unfortunately despite your respect given.

I predict it will be boring as Milan usually are static at home for some reason as I predict this will be a tactical match while the 2nd leg will be pure attacking.

Iceman wrote:So...is it time to build Arq a statue yet?

Only if Pascal Cygan gets on

highburied wrote:Arq...

You are the reason why I dont troll Milan and Liverpool...

You are like my angel stopping me doing that.

I love you (homo or no homo).

Unfortunately, booty calling now, will probably write a couple paragraphs to summarize your post tomorrow.

Peace out and good luck!

Thank you my good friend HB.

As for trolling my teams, I genuinely don't mind it as long as its your usual hilarious trolling. I'd also like you to troll Milanfan7, Fadi and Redoranje

Give your thoughts whenever.

srigooner wrote:Arq -

Great article and gave me a lot of ingisghts about the Milan squad. However, I agree with Jay that you are giving our midfield more credit than is due.

I still feel it is a 50-50 chance.

Oh btw, I don't think Wilshere is back for the second leg. Could you tell us what your other reasons were, even if briefly?

Thanks Sri.

See its not that i'm giving the midfield so much credit. But its actually more down to how our midfield will not be able to cope with the specified qualities and ability of Arsenals. Plus, its Arsenal's midfield that to me has been far more impressive than the front flank as if not for Arsenal's inconsistent positioning and decision making in the final 3rd, your team would have had many more goals this season. Plus, with our aged and immobile mid, it should be easy to dominate and overrun that side.

Wilshere, I hear he is making quicker recovery than possible. Could go either way.

As for my reasons, we may have our starters back, but I predict Arsenal's form picking up gradually towards march along with most players being at full fitness during the 2nd tie. I've watched Arsenal long enough to how their form exponentially rises when indications are there yet Milan is showing no signs at all. Vague answer but its primarily that the 2nd tie will be at Emirates, which is a cauldron in Euro nights.

Wilson37 wrote:Nice article.. Gave me some info about Milan...
But even our main problems lie in creating chances.. And when it comes to consistency we beat Chelsea and struggle to score against relegation teams..

Thanks Wilson.

I personally feel its more finishing chances for Arsenal. Plus, Arsenal are known this year for turning it up against the big boys based on their performances.

Samuelj29060 wrote:Excellent read Arquitecto. Good insight.

Fortunately, I watch all the major European leagues every week, so I have seen Milan play for the past however many years.

I like Allegri, talented manager.

But as you point out - Milan struggle against pace. It showed badly last year when Spurs won at the San Siro, and Arsenal will have to use that to their advantage.

Abate? I know he is highly rated in Italy, even if Maggio is better imo, but Abate has made bad mistakes - particularly in Milan derbies in recent times costing goals.

I can't wait for the game.

Thanks Samuel

Allegri is indeed a talented manager with excellent tactical prowess.

We do struggle against pace. Yet my only hope is, that we perform as how we did in the 2nd leg against Spurs where Milan completely dominated them in every aspect yet we were unlucky to not score (Robinho).

Yet with our current form and injury crisis, I do not see that happening.

Abate? He is highly rated as he is an old school RB with solid crossing.

He has made mistakes, but he is more the one who has concentration lapses and based on one mistake (usually costly) through the game yet solid throughout.

Lex wrote:I don't follow Serie A, but what's the difference between this Milan team and the team who got bored off the park against the Yids?

Milan are unpredictable, you can't expect anything uniform from them.

See the 1st leg against Tottenham then see the 2nd. 1st leg it was solely more because Milan let Spurs dominate us yet we turned it up in the 2nd and dominated them. This is the only hope I have to bring to the game, yet as mentioned above, I don't see it happening based on our form and injuries.

Zealous wrote:A more cohesive unit I would guess. Allegri has them well drilled.

I personally think Arsenal's chances of victory will depend on:

a) Whether their CB's can keep at least one clean sheet in the tie. I'm talking about the gritty dirty work, corners, rebounds, half chances etc.

b) How well their fullbacks go forward to create 2v1 situations.

Milan play narrow and like Arq has mentioned they struggle against teams with natural width... something spuds had last year (Although Milan could have won that tie if it wasn't for some bad luck) Width is also something Arsenal have this year (and pretty much every year since Wenger took the helm).

However Allegri will probably know this as well. I expect some sort of tactical set up that would help Milan overcome that. What that would be is up for debate, personally I would expect them to press early on like they did vs Barcelona. Try to force a mistake and then defend some sort of lead until the game ends.

Spot on in many points Zeal.

Yet the problem is that we can't engineer our team to neutralize the wing attack as this would leave a grey line on whether to go narrow or wide. We can only go narrow as we don't have the players to make foraging runs down the flank. Even then, this is all due to the complete lack of mobility in the side.

Sina wrote:what a Man.so much Respect Arq
i also not thinking about dominating possession
would be pretty content if we go with counter attacking style and get a decent result(score draw)so forcing Milan to come out and attack in 2nd leg
i doubt if Gibbs is ready(both match sharpness and mentally)
coquelin will do decent job if picked
although what i fear from chambo-coq combo is their lack of experience at this level
i wish just we dont concede early and score first

Thank you so much Sina

The best way to actually thwart this Milan side is not taking them head on, but to sit deep and counter attack unpredictably as this works especially well against our 4-3-1-2.

I don't see Gibbs starting to be honest as Wenger won't rush him into a match. Coq is sure to start.

Forza Rossoneri wrote: Excellent quality 'article'!

Firstly, I really liked the fact that Arq looked back at the February 2008 clashes between the sides to provide a background to this game. Looking at the team lists, it is clear that both squads have changed drastically.

For Milan, this was largely due to being on the (very steep) downhill after European conquest in 2007. The old legends, whilst still technically great, lacked the physique to match the modern, pacy attacks of Arsenal's youngsters.

Pato was then by far the youngest member of the squad and was clearly unable to carry the team in a Kaka-esque fashion, which was what was unfairly expected from him as a consequence of successive periods of poor transfer market policy from management.

Arsenal were ultimately superior, despite Milan surviving an end-to-end battle at the Emirates which included Adebayor firing an open header over the bar in the last minute of the game. Even at the San Siro, the remnants of our legendary back-four held out for 84 minutes, poor goalkeeping and a great Fabregas long-shot cost us.

My main criticism of the analysis for the upcoming games is that the outlook was slightly pessimistic for Milan...

I cannot see Arsenal having more possession than Milan in the San Siro. Milan's midfield, whilst imperfect, is designed to keep possession and deliberately leaves space for overlapping full-backs. Assuming Abate and Mesbah play, this is exactly what will happen. Also, I doubt Wenger will want possession; he will probably look to catch Milan off-guard on the counter instead and grab a valuable away goal to take back to the Emirates. I admit that don't watch a whole lot of Arsenal, however what Wenger has said in the press and GoonerJay29's response above seems to agree with these tactics.

As for the midfielders themselves, it is clear that whilst Milan's lack mobility, Arsenal's lack experience. What will happen is really anyone's guess. Seedorf and Ambrosini are definite weaknesses, although this will depend on which Seedorf and Ambrosini turn up; the fresh and recovered ones, or the ones who look tired and worn-out? Their inability to play two good games in a week due to their age and fitness has been well noted by Milan fans.

Walcott and Ox will surely be a great threat to Milan if Abate and Mesbah push up too much, however the same could be said if Gibbs strays out of position against Stefan El Shaarawy, who contrary to Arq's post, will be the favourite to start rather than Robinho. Only Allegri's tendancy to prefer experience over youth in these situations will prevent him from doing so. This is because whilst SES is completely inexperienced in the Europe, he has been electric in the league recently, whereas the Brazilian has looked flat for most of the season. In any case, SES will surely get some substantial game-time.

Personally, the key for Milan is pre-game... we have Boateng, Nesta and Pato all racing against the clock to be fit for this game. These three players are potential game-changers for Milan on their day and are they type who really thrive on a big occasion.

Anyway, that's my two cents. Once again, great post Arq.

Thank you FR

See its more realistic than pure pessimism as I'm only weighing out the outcome. Wenger did say he will look to attack yet I would actually prefer that compared to the deep sitting counterattack teams that we struggle most against. If they do attack, they'll have to press us hard as otherwise our team will expose their gaps. Yet this is a much smarter Arsenal this time around who are more proficient in closing their own gaps by Zonal marking. Yet Wenger usually doesn't play mind games and says what on his mind. Allegri will have to prepare Milan to neutralize such pressure yet the options to do so are little.

I agree Ambrosini should not start but if Urby starts, he would offer even less. Personally, I would start Seedorf as LM while Nocerino in the RM position with MvB playing his deep fulcrum role. You may be thinking Seedorf and his pace, yet if he can pull of what he did against Spurs, we can overcome them through his experience, vision and passing. Sadly with his lack of rest and current form, I can't expect anything. Which is why there is a massive conundrum over our selection.

Robinho will most likely start based on Allegri's preferance over experience along with his more capped partnership alongside Ibra.

I don't see neither Pato, Nesta, or Prince being rushed into this game as only Prince a sure chance to start. Pato imo would've been key in this game as he is the type of player that can effect Arsenal with his direct game and incredible finishing.

Once again, thank you FR.

Andiamo Milan

GoonerJay29 wrote:Very good post, Arq, though there's something I should point out:

6. Park Chu Young: Brought in to ease tension between North Korea and Wenger during Wenger fight in the Korean War. Chu-Young will leave to join the North Korean Army within 2 years now

Unless there's a joke I'm not getting, Park is from South Korea, not North Korea.

Anyway, nit-picking aside, I feel you may be giving us a little too much credit.

On paper, it does look like our younger midfield would get the best of Milan's older one, but experience counts for an awful lot in these games and Milan's midfield has plentiful amounts of that. Arteta has been great, but in recent weeks Song hasn't been at his best and we all know about Ramsey.

The fullbacks will play a big role in who controls the ball, also. If Milan push both fullbacks up it'll give them extra-men which will assist them in keeping possession. Our wingers don't track back well, so that could be an area Milan could exploit.

However, if we push our fullbacks up and let our wingers tuck in a little bit I think we'll control the ball. I think we'd be able to do so without having to worry too much about caught on the counter, whereas Milan would worry about the pace of Chamberlain and Walcott and leaving space in behind for them to exploit.

This will certainly be the most interesting tactical aspect of the tie. While I'm sure the attention will be on van Persie and Ibrahimovic, the real key battle is in midfield and down the flanks.

It's an odd thing to say, but I'd be more confident if Milan had more possession than us, as I don't feel we're dangerous enough whilst keeping the ball. I feel our best way of scoring would be on the counter.

Furthermore, I feel that playing a counter-attacking game would see our defence perform better. If Song plays a more defensive role, he'll be able to keep tabs on Boateng, while Arteta and Ramsey/Rosicky focus more on the transitions. Song's performance as a pure DM away in Dortmund is still fresh in my mind and it was because of that that we came away with a good result.

That also allowed us to play deeper. Koscielny and Vermaelen are quick, but I think we're much better as a defensive unit defending deep and not leaving many gaps at the back. Last time we tried to push up against Ibrahimovic he scored twice against us, so I feel it's important for us to limit the space and thus limit the influence he can have on the game.

We've gotten good results in tough places this season in the Champions League by playing down the flanks, playing mostly on the counter and being tight in defence. Hopefully, we'll do the same again in Milan.

He is from North Korea? My mistake. Off the record I really think he should be getting more chances and even ahead of Arshavin.

See experience is vital, but there is only so much experience can do as this has been our only saving grace along with the technical ability of our players. Yet so immobile, so static, so slow our midfield is that Song won't even have to track back for his defensive duties to assist Arteta as our mid is simply not effective in linking the midfield play to the forwards. Believe me, I watch Arsenal every week and have assessed what your wonderful team is capable of along with which kinds of midfields they excel against most. Milan are just that. Plus, Arsenal do have more experience with Arteta being 28-29, Song having ample euro experience, along with their peers who assist them in midfield. Its a blend of youth & experience which have made Arsenal a consistent force in Europe year after year.


Our fullbacks? The idea of our formation is for fullbacks to provide the width on paper, yet we don't have those tricky and dribbling type fullbacks as these are more the type with their crossing, link up play and astute tactical awareness. Yet the latter qualities are perfect for the team who don't need width. Our team needs to qualities in fullbacks in the FORMER (tricky, dribbling). This therefore renders our formation incredibly narrow. Even if your fullbacks are exposed for positioning, we don't have the pace or the players to take advantage of that exposure.

See, the best way to actually neutralize Milan is to play deep, be patient and then go lightening fast on the counter. Personally I don't feel Arsenal are exactly the pure wing-based attack as they used as its more narrow this year. Therefore keeping the deep counterattack will be KEY to beating Milan as we don't have the mid to withstand the pace of the counterattack, not the mid to break the deep counterattack position. If you see Wenger deploying this tactic, expect to see Milan have possession but very little chance created. If Arsenal attack head on, they will need to do full attack with pressing to overwhelm the sinewy legs of our midfield. Even if you do press high, due to our injuries, we don't have the players available to even take advantage of that.

As for Boateng, we won't be staring.

Thanks Jay.

how do you know that boa wont start?

if he doesnt start im expecting a loss.

Ramsey : ‘If we can go there and get a few goals then that’ll be a fantastic result for us.

‘Hopefully, we can get a couple of goals and keep them out as well.’
The Gunners have won on their previous two visits to the San Siro, including a 5-1 drubbing of Inter Milan in 2003 when Thierry Henry bagged a brace.

Henry’s loan spell at Arsenal expires this week but, after scoring three times since arriving from New York Red Bulls - including netting the winner in the dying seconds of his final Premier League game, a 2-1 win at Sunderland - the 34-year-old was coy on whether he was dreaming of signing off with another goal.

‘I have not thought about it,’ he said. ‘I just want to help Arsenal on the night.’

Great response to back up your opinions Arq. I definitely agree on the point you raised about Pato too - Perhaps he might be used as an impact sub at around 65-70 mins, although Allegri often makes changes 10 minutes after they are needed.

Nes-T33 wrote:how do you know that boa wont start?

if he doesnt start im expecting a loss.

My best guess is that Boateng will come on at just after half time if we are not playing well. Allegri won't want to risk a bad performance or Boateng re-injuring himself because he was rushed in too soon. If it was me, I'd start him, but obviously Allegri knows much more about what kind of condition the players are in. No need to expect a loss though, our team is capable of playing well without Boateng.