England v Italia-Arquitecto's Comprehensive Neutral Man's Perspective, Breakdown & Pre-Analysis

At Sunday 7:45 PM CET in Kiev, a long anticipated clash between Football International giants will take place. The Anglo-Italian tie has been the dream of this forum as the Italians, English and Neutrals alike relish the sheer rivalry that has characterized the Anglo-Italian rivalry within this forum.

It all began in GOAL.com Lithium where for club and country Italia had posters such as fiery Giancarlo, old man Wigglesworth, Young Sciacca, Juvenelcuore while the English favor stood with Feverpitch, the infamous Cyberman and a few others I forget. It defined the long standing rivalry that was conceptualized of nothing really and has given the impression that the Anglo-Italian rivalry is bigger than what it actually seems. My perspective is the names given along with a few other Italian supporters have simply grown wary of Serie A's downfall while looking enviously upon the English success.

Fortunately since most of these delinquents have either left or been banned, the relationship and rivalry has cooled into more amicable relations bar the few occasional exceptions.

While the English folk of this forum have been relatively respectful (Jay, Mole etc), sadly I am seeing quite a bit of arrogance from the side who supports the Azzuri. Those statements given by Azzuri fans have been quite off mark along with how they severely underestimate England and would make you think as if Italia are without their own problems.

Unfortunately for Italia, I have quite a different perspective as through careful analysis and thought, I have come to the conclusion that very little is going in favor for Italia along with the fact that I will conclusively explain why England are most likely to go through along with how Hodgson's team is essentially almost tailor made to exploit Italia's weaknesses.


Brief History of the Two

The Italians have a meticulous focus on detail, tact, strategy, wit and intelligence. The Italians are historically known to outsmart their oppnenents as their sheer calculative tactics within the game has historically put fear into the hearts of their opponents as the oppositions were always left outsmarted, outwitted and many a times outplayed by the Azzuri. This is due to the fact that Italian youth systems and schools of thought first and foremost focus on the intellectual and mental aspect at an early age of Italian football students and aspiring coaches and then move on their true footballing skills (which is the case why Italians are generally late bloomers). It is a common misconception that Italians play boring whereas this has spurned from English distaste of Italian football and ignorance due to the fact that Italian football plays at a lower tempo then other leagues. Yet, the explanation behind this is that Italians always prefer to use their wits and technical adeptness, as the players like to think before an act in any form. This explains the lower tempo as their football is often labeled as the thinking mans football as examples are defenders who possess unrivalled reading and awareness rather then focus on last ditch tackles pace with strength. Another misconception is that Italians are defensive-minded as this is another myth spurned from English distaste due to Italian’s infamous defenses. The truth in explanation is that Italians play attacking yet prefer to focus more on their defense then other schools of thought as their detailed focus into their defense gives the illusion to others that Italians “park the bus” or are defensive whereas the team has produced many of times, attractive teams over the century as Sciacca or Wiggles will provide an apt example. The conclusion simply is that their glorious defenses make people overlook their pioneering to attacking in football. Although Italians focus heavily on strategy and tactics, this is not to say that this is their only forte is in their intelligence as the focus on their youth is equally as important on their technical astuteness as physical play is not of importance in the peninsula. Examples of this are their pioneering efforts in football which have produced legends of technical perfection as in Italia compared to England who focus more towards on physicality (and its finer attributes like pace, stamina and athleticism) and iron hard mentality, counterattacking balanced by pacy wing attack, and sound organizational skills. Italia’s technical priorities are more on versatility(eg;use of both feet,adaptabilty), development of the 3rd order thoughts like prediction and vision and of course like England, Perfection on what they do best.

England have always been in the contention stage of tournaments within and have had countless generations of great players yet have been criticized for underachieving on the international stage while being given a platform by their media. English players nowadays are moving away from the focus of pure physicality and hoof into a more technical stage as evidence of this are youngsters like Jack Wilshere, Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain, Martin Kelly, Tom Cleverley, and Chris Smalling. All minor suggestions of England willing to deviate from their original ways. All in all the future is bright for England in club and countries as their recent efforts to instill a more modern approach into their youth training cannot go without applause.



Italia

Cesare Prandelli took over in May 20th 2010 immediately after Marcelo Lippi's disastrous World Cup campaign. Since then the young Italian has transformed the Azzuri into a dynamic attacking side which has been easy on the eye along with a strong tactical basis to back it up. His most notable matches of praise was the 1-1 against Germany in Dortmund's Signal Iduna Park where Italia were essentially considered the better side in dominance and play along with being disallowed many questionable calls. His second was the 2-1 dismantling of Espana in Bari where Espana's only goal was allowed through a terrible call on penalty along with once again, Italia being the better side as well in the match-up. All of this came with further acclaim due to Italia's poor record in friendlies hence the notable losses such as 0-3 Russia and 2-0 Ireland as these losses came of heavy criticism to Cesare.

Prandelli's main criticism has been his failure to find the best system which optimizes on all of Italia's resources along with the formation its based on as such is Prandelli's known strive for perfection.


Criticism of Squad Selection for Prandelli:


While nowhere near as bad as Lippi in this regard, Prandelli has been criticized for his selection in the Euro's despite his admirable squad selection policy earlier on. He has been negatively looked upon due to the omission of some very deserving players such as Newcastle's fullback ace Davide Santon, Juve's Paolo De Ceglie, Palermo talisman and Fantasista, Fabrizio Miccoli, Alberto Aquilani, Marco Veratti, Davide Astori, Mattia Destro, and Mattia Cassani. Santon due to his superb technical ability and ease of playing LB and RB. De Ceglie due to his notable improvements in Juve while being favored over Giaccherini (who isn't even a LB), Miccoli due to his footballing genius while being favored of the inconsistent Diamanti, Aquilani for depth, Veratti as a vice-Pirlo, Astori for depth, Destro being favored over Borini, and Cassani arguable reasons. All in all this idea seems naive yet it is argued there are some not so deserving spots and which could have been replaced by better players. The criticism also is that Prandelli hasn't yet deployed a standard Prima Punta (targetman) as Matri wasn't chosen due to his off-form, Osvaldo due to inconsistency, Giampaolo Pazzini also due to dropped form and a few other exceptions. The lack of 9 has been aimed as the reason for Italia's poor finishing in front of goal despite the usual amount of impressive chances created within games.


He has experimented with a 4-3-3, 4-1-2-1-2, 4-1-3-2, 4-4-2, 3-5-2 and whats probably his favorite, the 4-3-1-2.

Before the England-Italia match there is speculation that a 4-3-3 will be used since it has been practiced recently in the Azzuri training ground. Yet what most predict along with I is that the 4-3-1-2 will once again show its face against England. Italian fans all say the 3-5-2 is essentially the best formation needed as focuses less of ball possession yet Italia can press with more vigor and effectively eliminate their lack of width with the use of Wingbacks. It is also suggested for Prandelli to play a 3-4-1-2 as this would suit Italia as well yet we haven't seen this enough from Prandelli despite its success.

Here is a rough picture of what is the best line-up using the 3-5-2 formation:


Buffon
Bonnuci-Cheillini-Barzagli
Maggio-Pirlo-De Rossi-Marchisio-Balzaretti
Cassano-Toto Di Natale.

The Best possible 4-3-1-2 would be:

Buffon
Abate-Barzagli-Cheillini-Balzaretti


Pirlo-De Rossi-Marchisio

Cassano/Giovinco (vice versa for either positions)

Cassano/Giovinco-Di Natale.

Modifications and disagreements may be made yet this is the line-up which essentially defines the optimum effectiveness on squad alignment and arguably the formation itself since 3-5-2 is most popular despite the optimized 4-3-1-2 posted

Much to the dismay of the Azzuri tifosi along with me, we will probably (if not definitely) see the 4-3-1-2 as here is how it would line-up: (This time taking predictions and injuries into account)


Buffon
Abate/Maggio-Bonnuci-Barzagli-Balzaretti

Pirlo-De Rossi-Marchisio

Motta/Montolivo

Cassano-Di Natale/Balotelli


Maggio is known to be questionable when pushed back into the fullback position yet this does not mean Prandelli will replace him for Abate who is more defensively sound and performed solidly against Ireland. Bonnuci will take place for the injured Chiellini while Balzaretti is surely to continue his left spot in place of the unimpressive winger-turned wingback Giaccherini. The 3 man mid will be as predicted while the TQ position is of much debate. Prandelli's criticism has been that he tends to use Riccardo Montolivo in a Trequartista position despite the fans and journalists alike insisting he is meant to be deployed deep. Evidence of this proof is his wonderful performances against Germany and Espana (the latter he scored a goal in) while he has understandably failed to impress in the Trequartista position. Speculation is that Prandelli has scrapped this idea yet a more maligned idea has come into play where Prandelli insists on the usage of Thaigo Motta as a Trequartista despite Motta being a defensive-minded CM. It has come with mixed results as Motta was praised for his tidy passing play and position to thwart incoming counters in that position yet criticized for his lack of creativity and incision in passing. I have come to the conclusion that Prandelli doesn't mean to use him as a TQ but more of a role similar to Park Ji Sung of Man United and Prince Boateng of Milan as Mole aptly pointed out once. The frontline is a light rotation of Cassano, Di Natale and Balotelli. Cassano and Di Natale have formed a supremely intelligent partnership based on quick incisive passing, fulcrum support and minimal use of physicality and more towards guile. Balotelli is still favored among Azzuri fans for his ability to produce something out of nothing yet I will get to that in a moment.

I will leave this for later and touch upon the English side and their line-ups and formation.


England:


Roy Hodson's decision to be made the manager of the Three Lions was made after the decision of Fabio Capello to resign his England post after a disagreement in which John Terry was stripped o captaincy by the FA.

Roy's appointment came to a slight surprise as the whole nation and media expected bull-dog faced and media favorite Harry Redknapp to take over. Roy's reason to be appointed came down to how Redknapp succumbed to his usual seasonal 2nd half drop while Hodgson was having solid results with West Bromvich Albion. Since then, he has forged a side which has made comparisons to Roberto Di Matteo's Chelsea and has gathered criticism for their defensive, pragmatic and near yawn inducing Counter-attacking style. Yet Roy has equally been met with praise as he has managed to create a side with more team-spirit,togetherness and less inflamed ego as this is quite a remarkable feat considering England is known to be a team full of large egos. He has also won praise for the sheer discipline and organized defensive displays for his team as I would say without hesitation we are seeing a team with the best defense within the tournament. He also possesses a record of 5 games played with 4 wins and one draw without loss.

Roy is predictable and firm in his choices of line-up as he tends to use his known Two banks of four in a standard English 4-4-2 system which he has generally formed a line-up usually as:


Hart
Johnson-Lescott-Terry-Cole

Milner-Gerrard-Parker-Young

Roonay-Welbeck

This formation has gotten mixed results due to the ineffectiveness and lack of ideas along with some players who have been called upon to be replaced by an arguably better line-up. More specifically this would be the highly-priced Manchester City Winger James Milner who has been panned for his lack of play and indecisiveness while Ashley Young has been criticized for his predictable, one-dimensional and one-footed play which has hindered Hodgson's counter attacking style at times despite his flashes of brilliance.

So here is my line-up is which I speculate English fans would most desire: (formation obviously won't be changed)


Hart
Johnson-Lescott-Terry-Cole

Thor-Parker-Gerrard-Oxlaide-Chamberlain

Welbeck/Carroll-Roonay


Here we have Walcott replaced for Milner as Walcott most definitely deserves his spot as since Hodgson's appointment he has performed admirably due to slotting in perfectly into a counter-attacking side exploiting his wonderful pace and incisive runs into the box. Oxlaide-Chamberlain is usually deployed on the right with Walcott yet is known to be able to play on both sides due to his ambidextrous nature and versatility.

I put Carroll there because I have heard many calls that Carroll is needed to exploit the frequent hoofing England tends to do as the argument is "Why not add a World Class header-er since the balls is most of the time in the air?". The argument also is Carroll has returned to form (Liverpool's best player in the last 3 months of the season) along with his underrated general play of passing and superb use of holding up the ball and vital knockdowns. It is said he will also compliment Roonay's all-rounder role perfectly.

The argument of placing Welbeck with Roonay is first and foremost the Man-United partnership which proved successful last season and praised for the chemistry and understanding between them along with Welbeck's clutch ability to gather goals out of small windows of opportunity.


Criticism of Squad Selection for Hodgson:

Hodgson has been criticized for the inclusion of Useless Liverpool Psuedo Winger Stewart Downing instead of Daniel Sturridge, along with favoring Martin Kelly over Micah Richards. The Versatile Phil Jones over Rio Ferdinand, Jordan Henderson over Tom Cleverley.

Obviously the replacements and roles don't go hand in hand yet given the selection limitations, many Englishmen argue these players could have better augmented England as compared to the current Euro Squad.


Reasons Why England will Prevail Over Italia



1. I have watched this England side and noticed how my heart sunk when we had to face the prospect of facing England rather than France? France may be a technically and tactically better side yet here is the reason why England are the ultimate team that has the best chance of beating Italia. Prandelli's side is known to hold up against the best technical and footballing playing sides. Whether it be Espana, Germany, Uruguay, Prandelli's side has been praised for standing their ground and even impressing more when faced against these sides. Which is why I wanted France instead since I firmly believe Italia would have stood a better chances and could prevail over them when faced in an open game. England as mentioned play a defensive counter-attacking play with focus on wing attack. This style is essentially what Italia is worst against. It is the reason behind their most notable losses. Not only that, Italia may not struggle against technical sides, yet they struggle massively against physical sides. Russia, Ireland (in the friendlies loss and this tournament), and other examples have shown that Italia are subdued in their play when faced against sides not afraid to use their muscle and pace. It effectively is the kryptonite to Italia's play as rough tackling and marking, use of pace and pressing along with a superior display of athleticism has shown to effect the team negatively. Italia have impressive physical specimen such as Marchisio, Chiellini, De Rossi, etc yet the whole team despite their athleticism is focused more on the technical side of playing cannot multi-task on both ends as it would be all to demanding. It is a similar case to Arsenal vs Stoke as Arsenal struggle against these physical sides. Although England is far more technical than Stoke. Yet the idea if modified is almost the same.

2. Memorize the 3-5-2 for Italia I posted as that is essentially what is the best line-up without injuries, form and alignment for Italia. It would also be the best line-up for against England to thwart their wing counterattacks. Prandelli is an impressive manager with a bright future in my opinion. But like many Italian managers he tends to be incredibly stubborn. Despite of the speculation of a 4-3-3 being deployed to face England. I and my fellow Italians can guarantee you that a 4-3-1-2 will be played. It is not only Italia's lesser effective formation, yet it is the EXACT formation you SHOULD NOT play against England. 4-3-1-2 will give Italia more ball possession, yet it will reduce the amount of pressing and incisiveness to Italia's attack mostly due to the lack of a 9 and lack of Trequartista. He will either place Montolivo (unlikely), Motta or Diamanti in the TQ position. Monty as mentioned isn't a TQ period. Motta doesn't offer the creativity needed or the movement. And Diamanti despite his moments of pure genius is just far to inconsistent to be looked well upon for the fixture. So therefore the frontline will be hindered by the lack of TQ as Di Natale and Cassano have been more creators than finishers but will need supply in a formation such as this. Whats worse is that Maggio isn't as effective as RB as compared to WB as Abate will have to be played a RB. Abate is arguably more defensively sound than Maggio yet does not offer much offense. We all know that the 4-3-1-2 best functions with fullbacks offering the width. Abate does not provide much width. Balzaretti will thankfully be played instead of Giaccherini, yet like Maggio, Balzaretti is also a natural wingback and isn't as impressive in the LB position as he loves to go forward. So in the fullback position we have an imbalance here. Biggest problem is Giorgio Cheillini is injured. He is in my opinion the greatest man-marker in European football. He is who I imagined to lead the backline and mark out Roonay. Despite his occasional mistakes he has been a tower of invincibility for the Italian defense. His absence is not the only problem. Leonardo Bonnuci is a very skilled and talented CB, yet through Conte's 3 man backlines it has been shown Bonnuci truly shines in a 3 man backline and is relatively inconsistent in the 4 man backline. So this leaves a question mark of Barzagli's head whether Bonnuci will be reliable or not. Calls are being made to deploy Ogbonna yet it simply won't happen. All in all the 4-3-1-2 just makes Italia predictable, too narrow, slow and reduces the amount of pressing they can do and focuses more on ball possession. Yet we all know possession isn't whats needed to beat England.

* If you've wondered. Italia also lost their best LB who is the technically impressive Domenico Criscito who was let go of due to his suspicions on the Italian scandal.


The other problem is since the fullbacks won't provide width, they also won't be pressing the English wingers/fullbacks back into their own half. This sequentially leaves MASSIVE space for the English wingers to exploits the very narrow 4-3-1-2 as this is where the battle will be won for England. Repeated crosses, airballs and hoofing from the flanks is what is known as the biggest problem for Italian defense. And I already explained above (and below) how and why English wingers and fullbacks will prevail over the Italian fullbacks. This match will essentially be a reminder of the various matches in which narrow and slow sides have been overcome back pacy counterattack situated more towards the wings. It just doesn't comply to me how Italia will win over England when these factors WILL be played into account.

Conclusively, Roy's 4-4-2 will overcome Prandelli's 4-3-1-2 not only because of the factors above. But because the 4-3-1-2 is a formation is simply the wrong formation for Italia. It is not a side meant to play a formation such as that as the imbalance of natural WB/FBs and lack of TQ renders this formation useless and ESPECIALLY against Hodgson's side.


3. Italia are a good solid side in my opinion and many would agree with me. Yet for all their technical, intelligent tactical play and moments of ingenuity, the one problem that has plagued this side is more towards the physical end of the spectrum. This side, physically is essentially like Antonio Cassano, full of ideas, full of technique, vision, creativity etc. Yet the problem is that Cassano is and always been an unfit athlete due to his indulgent tendencies. Like Cassano, Italia tends to run out of steam near the end of the game (even a bit before that) as this is the cause for Italia usually creating less chances and being pressed back into their own half. It doesn't help that the game will be played in the hot and humid Ukraine either. This fitness problem has long been Italia's most overlooked problem and in my opinion the sole reason why Italia haven't been able to score more often and finish their games. Players like Andrea Pirlo, Di Natale, Cassano, Motta, Maggio, Balzaretti all suffer from this issue while the others less notably are effected by this unfortunate cause as well. It causes a chain reaction to the whole team and Italia is less and less effective as the game goes on. How does this go hand in hand with England? England in my opinion is possibly the fittest and most athletic side in the tournament right now. Their focus on physicality has given them that. England have been known to show remarkable stamina and fitness levels through the tournament. Biggest fear is that this game due to many tactical differences will go down to extra time and possibly penalties. Yet we all know who will have the advantage in those stages as despite Prandelli's solid substitutions to counter Italia's stamina problem, England will still retain the advantage as their core team and substitutes are simply fitter than the Azzuri. Its also bad news for Italia that they have been playing twice a week almost.


4. I have already explained the wing based side of England's superiority yet taking the above factor into account, once the Italian midfield is also fatigued, the Silk n' Steel middle partnership will come into account. Parker will slowly mark Pirlo more and more out of the game while Gerrard has shown even as a CM he can cope with midfielders like Marchisio and DDR when defensively covered. The part about Gerrard can go either way yet it will be an advantage for him to capitalize on the increasingly fatigued midfield of Italians. This will eventually give space to Roonay who can run all day while Welbeck is the fox in the box who the Italians would fear. It all comes down to this because Italians will lose the physical battle. Ever wonder WHY Italian sides struggle these days to English clubs? It is due to the all 4 factor named and not because of pure superiority.

5. Italian team while mentally together have been effected by all the external scandals. It is a streotype that the scandals within Serie A help Italia yet this scandal and how it was unwisely handled RIGHT within the Italian HQ and training ground has left a mark on the Italian players mentality and focus, I believe. Italia also are in severe pressure due to past failures after the world cup as it has given them a sense of doubt and more so than England who have been reduced to underdogs by media and fans alike. The onus more me is on the Italians as I just know they have the larger expectations yet won't carry it out as well as usual. It doesn't help that Prandelli has little experience in preparing for such a stage and competition. Italia just haven't looked as fluid, impressive, confident and solid as they have as compared to last year or the year before. Its not only the selections of squad yet the sheer lack of confidence in front of goal (and lack of finishing) along with the absence of a "best" system has caused confusion in the play and has reduced to how much conviction Prandelli's side play.


What you will see is Italia and England playing the predicted formations. What you will see is Italia gaining more ball possession against England while England sit deeper and wait for mistakes and counterattacking opportunities. Both sides will create chances as Italia maybe more earlier on.

Yet what you also will see as slowly throughout the ending stages of the game (around 65th-70th) you will see England pressing further and further into their own half due to Italian fatigue and disability to continuously press (cause of the 4312) as you will not only see the battle won by England on the wings (which will be won from the beginning) but you will see as mentioned, the English midfield overcoming and pressing the Italian midfield back. If Theo and Ox don't start, it will be just if not more effective for England due to the pacy impact they will cause. As fatigue wears on, this is will Roonay and CO. will be most likely to capitalize. Plus there is a the added possibility that Milner and in my opinion, Young will perform.

You will see Italians in positions they are not comfortable or natural in along with seeing many mistakes from Italia. You will see surprises and England attacking more than you think. You will see England superior in the end not because they are better, but because the physical battle is whats crucial in what will be a cagey game. If you see ET. England will 99% win this one. If you see the 3-5-2 (with DDR as Sweeper instead of the injured Chiellini) you might be seeing Italia winning yet you won't see this formation or even the 4-3-3 at all.

You will see England win either 2-0 or 2-1 or possibly even 3-0.

I am sorry this article is so long and disorganized in structure and run ons. But I had to clear my thoughts and explain the myths on what and what will not happen. I have calculated all factors and it all just comes down to me that England will win either way simply because they are the antithesis of Italia. Italia may have the better record against England in history, yet that doesn't mean *bleep* these day. Italia are known to be a technically and tactically better side, yet sometimes this isn't enough as football has many smaller factors that add up to make the difference. And it will be the difference for England.

Jinx? No I wouldn't waste this much time on jinxing England.

I ask, be patient in reading the whole article as I find you will agree with me that Italia are actually the underdogs here and will be bested by England even if it is ugly, or even if it is in penalties.

England will win and I am near 100% sure of this. Forget some of my earlier predictions, this is WHAT will happen. I can bet on it.

Until then Forza Azzuri. Dai Ragazzi.

Very interesting stuff, Arq. However, I am afraid that, as good as your post is, it does not convince me that England have any decent chance of winning the game.

I do respect the fact that you're taking us seriously, but I think you overestimate England's capabilities, particularly in regards to our defence and fitness. It is true that by playing deep and with two banks of four, we have managed not to give the opposition many clear opportunities at goal. But tactically, our midfield is suspect and it's only gotten through most games thanks to running around a lot and throwing themselves in the way of shots. That might have worked against Sweden and Ukraine (and France, to a lesser extent), but against Italy I don't think it will.

I also fear that Cassano's and Di Natale's pace and intelligence will be too much for Terry and Lescott, who won't have the necessary protection from the midfield. Moreover, although our playing deep prevents clear cut opportunities on our goal, it leaves space for long range efforts and Italy do have their fair share of players who can capitalise on that. So I reckon there will be plenty of chances for Italy. It'll just up to them to take them.

Fitness-wise, we aren't that great. Towards the end of every game so far, Parker and Gerrard have looked out on their feet, and I expect Rooney's lack of playing time and Welbeck's/Carroll's willingness to run will also work against them. We may have gotten away with it before, but Italy's superior quality will punish us, especially if it's Rooney's or Parker's duty to mark Pirlo.

Your theory that Italy's fitness is questionable and that they tend to fade away towards the end of games lends itself to the idea that Walcott and Chamberlain should be impact subs. Walcott has been rightly praised for his cameo against Sweden, but it has to be pointed out that, at that point, the game was open and the Sweden defence lacked organisation. As disappointing Milner and Young have been, I think Walcott and Chamberlain are best used against tiring defences when the game is slightly more open (Walcott has always struggled against deep, organised defences, after all).

I don't think it's hopeless for us, and I don't think it'll be the thrashing most fans are expecting, but my feeling is that Italy are too good for us, both technically and tactically.

Physique does not only torble Italy

it troubles Italian sides in teh Champions league

udinese made theo walcott look like Ozil

Milan could not handle Oxlade

same story

Its the most exciting game so far in the tournament, specially considering the Italo-english rivalry.

My brain is telling me that Italy as a team is better, but my gut-feeling is saying England will kill the headlines all over the anglophile world tomorrow. Its a weird unorthodox team to face.

A whole breakdown based on reverse jinxing the english

There is no way in hell Parker could mark Pirlo out of the game, he could'nt mark out a tiny little rabbit, he has the 1 v 1 marking skills of a tiny little ant.... his best trait is his last ditch tackling which will have no effect when it comes to Pirlo.

I see Gerrard being dealt with by DDR and Marchisio rather simply and Motta will be tasked to a man marking job on Rooney, which he's more than capable of doing while Barzagli and Bonucci will be tasked to deal with Welbeck.

While its true England have a distinct advantage when it comes to wideplay due to narrowness of Italy's system, this will only come into effect in the final 20 mins when Hodgson brings on Oxlade and Walcott as Young and Milner offer no threat what so ever and Balzaretti and Abate are very good defensively.

As far as an attacking threat goes Di Natale/Balotelli pace and movement combined with Cassano's artistry and intelligence will cause England untold problems as neither Lescott or Terry like playing against Pace or Intelligence.

The only major advantage Italy's system gives England is the possibility of 2 v 1 situations while Milner and Young are pretty poor and dont offer a great deal, the fullbacks behind them are the opposite both Johnson and Cole are great going forward and if England can get into 2 v 1 situations fairly frequently they will get joy.

Not only because of the 2 v 1 outcome but because it will cause the likes of Marchisio and DDR to come across to protect the fullback will give Rooney and Gerrard freedom to operate and cause damage... if England take advantage of this system fault then they can get joy and might win this way.

There is'nt really a great deal of system faults with England's system to exploit apart from the fact England's Midfield 2 plus Milner and and Rooney dropping into hole's to help them against Italy's narrow 4, Italy will probably have the advantage both defensively and offensively in the midfield.

But France, Sweden and Ukraine all had this advantage too but did'nt take advantage due to some solid defending from the English and poor finishing on their part.

The Key for Italy will be to get thier fullbacks in attacking positions and get Pirlo and Cassano combining as much as possible.

To create chances for the likes of Di Natale or Balotelli to make of with thier incisive running and unsettle the back 4 and the likes of DDR and Marchisio making runs beyond England's midfield but also stifling Gerrard's influence.

The Key for England will be, as i already touched on will be the get in 2 v 1 situations in wide areas to pull the midfielders out of position and get Roonay and Gerrard to influence the game in the middle.

As they will likely be shackled well by Marchisio, Motta and DDR but if England can use the extra width in thier game to drag them out wide then Gerrard and Roonay can possible stamp thier authority on the game and drive England to victory.

Should be a good game IMO and could go either way and i see Italy as slight favourites but it could go either way and see nothing which says one team would be massive favourites over the other.

In anycase a great breakdown Arq, i especially enjoyed the historic and squad criticism parts.

too much to read, but i ll do it later

as for now as long as Prandelli doesnt make stupid decisions and game goes our way, we ll win. Banal to say? But thats the most important thing, i ve seen italy going down when they tried to experiment on things during the match. Frustrating view. So play our game and we shall prevail. Cheers

They will try to injury Pirlo.

Excellent overall Analysis Arq

However i must say that Goonerjay is spot on with his post, You are giving far too much credit to England. We honestly are not as good as people think, and i will say we rode our luck on many occasions.

First of all if we assess our Defense, we have let in 3 goals in 3 matches which might not be a lot but it does hide the fact that our defense got split apart many times in each of the group games. The way Ukraine got better of our defense, It is kinda unpleasant to imagine what the likes of Di Natale , Cassano and even Balotelli would do if they manage to get their game going. However the thing we are good at is Defending compactly while engaging in last ditch tackles. And the fact we defend deep, it might minimize the tactics which would allow Italian attackers to get behind.

However Hodgson knows how Italy plays, I am sure he will base the tactics which can counter the prandelli approach.

Coming to our midfield, I agree with Mole. Parker can't even mark someone like karl henry out of the game. Pirlo will destroy him So i really hope Gerrard goes head to head with Pirlo instead of Parker. Parker can try and get his head in the way of all the shots balotelli will take from outside the box. In any case, i can imagine Italy will have over 60% off the ball. Which suits us fine, We don't need the ball and one of the good thing about this team is that they are better when they don't have the ball. It is strange but its true from what i have seen.

The reason for this is that If you give the ball to Milner, he doesn't know what to do with it because his main role is to protect Johnson. Similiarly Parker's role is to pass it to gerrard or the fullbacks. Ashley young has been really poor imo he tries to do too much thinking the whole weight of the team is on him. Gerrard has been our best player and it shows because when he has the ball, he knows exactly what to do with it.

Our attack is primarily based on the front two strikers, Who i must admit have been excellent. Both welbeck and Carroll stepped up when we needed them. Rooney was rusty last game but having him raises the morale of the team so that will be good against Italy. I would hope We start Theo on the right because Wingers can be crucial to our tactics. However according to the latest reports, Hodgson will go with the same team so i really do wonder what's his thinking behind that.

In the end i would say that It wont be a high scoring match. Might be dull in some way because Italy will know we won't attack unless they do, so they will be cautious as our counter attacks have been kinda good. In a way, I think the Subs will decide the match.

Hoping for a great match in any case

RealGunner wrote:Excellent overall Analysis Arq

However i must say that Goonerjay is spot on with his post, You are giving far too much credit to England. We honestly are not as good as people think, and i will say we rode our luck on many occasions.

First of all if we assess our Defense, we have let in 3 goals in 3 matches which might not be a lot but it does hide the fact that our defense got split apart many times in each of the group games. The way Ukraine got better of our defense, It is kinda unpleasant to imagine what the likes of Di Natale , Cassano and even Balotelli would do if they manage to get their game going. However the thing we are good at is Defending compactly while engaging in last ditch tackles. And the fact we defend deep, it might minimize the tactics which would allow Italian attackers to get behind.

However Hodgson knows how Italy plays, I am sure he will base the tactics which can counter the prandelli approach.

Coming to our midfield, I agree with Mole. Parker can't even mark someone like karl henry out of the game. Pirlo will destroy him So i really hope Gerrard goes head to head with Pirlo instead of Parker. Parker can try and get his head in the way of all the shots balotelli will take from outside the box. In any case, i can imagine Italy will have over 60% off the ball. Which suits us fine, We don't need the ball and one of the good thing about this team is that they are better when they don't have the ball. It is strange but its true from what i have seen.

The reason for this is that If you give the ball to Milner, he doesn't know what to do with it because his main role is to protect Johnson. Similiarly Parker's role is to pass it to gerrard or the fullbacks. Ashley young has been really poor imo he tries to do too much thinking the whole weight of the team is on him. Gerrard has been our best player and it shows because when he has the ball, he knows exactly what to do with it.

Our attack is primarily based on the front two strikers, Who i must admit have been excellent. Both welbeck and Carroll stepped up when we needed them. Rooney was rusty last game but having him raises the morale of the team so that will be good against Italy. I would hope We start Theo on the right because Wingers can be crucial to our tactics. However according to the latest reports, Hodgson will go with the same team so i really do wonder what's his thinking behind that.

In the end i would say that It wont be a high scoring match. Might be dull in some way because Italy will know we won't attack unless they do, so they will be cautious as our counter attacks have been kinda good. In a way, I think the Subs will decide the match.

Hoping for a great match in any case

RG

It will be better for Italy to play 352 as it gives them enough players on the wings and within the box which are main areas of strength of England.

Parker will not be the one marking or battling with pirlo.England midfielders likes to stay deep and Pirlo play makes from deep so it will be Rooney who will be in charge of closing pirlo down and disrupting the flow of Italia's game.This part is definitely important as the time within Rooney close down Pirlo will be really crucial.

Italia is not as defensive as the past but it is definitely not really an attacking team either.Their creativity is lacking, apart from Pirlo no midfilder really stood out for their creative works.They scored 4 goals and 3 of them were from set piece situations.

England likes to sit deep and defend and Italia cant create goal chances to save their life. I expect a extra time match and may be a penalty shoot out.

GoonerJay29 wrote:Very interesting stuff, Arq. However, I am afraid that, as good as your post is, it does not convince me that England have any decent chance of winning the game.

I do respect the fact that you're taking us seriously, but I think you overestimate England's capabilities, particularly in regards to our defence and fitness. It is true that by playing deep and with two banks of four, we have managed not to give the opposition many clear opportunities at goal. But tactically, our midfield is suspect and it's only gotten through most games thanks to running around a lot and throwing themselves in the way of shots. That might have worked against Sweden and Ukraine (and France, to a lesser extent), but against Italy I don't think it will.

I also fear that Cassano's and Di Natale's pace and intelligence will be too much for Terry and Lescott, who won't have the necessary protection from the midfield. Moreover, although our playing deep prevents clear cut opportunities on our goal, it leaves space for long range efforts and Italy do have their fair share of players who can capitalise on that. So I reckon there will be plenty of chances for Italy. It'll just up to them to take them.

Fitness-wise, we aren't that great. Towards the end of every game so far, Parker and Gerrard have looked out on their feet, and I expect Rooney's lack of playing time and Welbeck's/Carroll's willingness to run will also work against them. We may have gotten away with it before, but Italy's superior quality will punish us, especially if it's Rooney's or Parker's duty to mark Pirlo.

Your theory that Italy's fitness is questionable and that they tend to fade away towards the end of games lends itself to the idea that Walcott and Chamberlain should be impact subs. Walcott has been rightly praised for his cameo against Sweden, but it has to be pointed out that, at that point, the game was open and the Sweden defence lacked organisation. As disappointing Milner and Young have been, I think Walcott and Chamberlain are best used against tiring defences when the game is slightly more open (Walcott has always struggled against deep, organised defences, after all).

I don't think it's hopeless for us, and I don't think it'll be the thrashing most fans are expecting, but my feeling is that Italy are too good for us, both technically and tactically.

Thanks for the kind words Jay. Great points as well.

Fine, to an extent I may be overestimating Roy's side yet watching their games through the tournament I am estimated what they are capable of in a situation basis and who they would perform against best. Italia is the team who they can be most comfortable with for many of the reasons.

Cassano Di Natale? They may be supremely intelligent yet Cassano lacks pace while Di Natale may be agile, yet also lacks the sheer acceleration needed to trouble PL experienced CBs like Terry and Lescott. Oh yes, and Balotelli is starting instead of Di Natale which is even worse given his inconsistency and how Lescott even stated Balo doesn't trouble Lescott much in training. This...is a negative point as Balo starting is not the correct decision in my opinion.

Englands fitness? What ever it may be I am 100% sure Italia's fitness doesn't compare to the english fitness despite whatever signs of fatigue English players show in certain frames of time.

Parker and Gerrard may be tired near the end I haven't seen a midfield tire as much as I have seen Italia this tournament. Rooney's lack of playing time will work for him and give him a 'fresh' advantage. We also must understand the sheer devastation that can be caused by Carroll coming on as an impact or especially Theo/Ox coming on to expose the fatigue that Italia will inevitably face.

The impact sub as stated was my greatest fear as mentioned above. Mark my words Jay that will be the winning/sealing point for England through the game as Italia tend to make tactical switches rather than ones that change the pace of the game.

In the end it all comes down to comparison of factors and circumstances along with how England is fit to exploit Italia's subtle weaknesses. And your team is the one to do that. Which is why I wanted France rather than England.

It'll be a win for England this I am sure of. Thanks Jay.

Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:A whole breakdown based on reverse jinxing the english

There is no way in hell Parker could mark Pirlo out of the game, he could'nt mark out a tiny little rabbit, he has the 1 v 1 marking skills of a tiny little ant.... his best trait is his last ditch tackling which will have no effect when it comes to Pirlo.

I see Gerrard being dealt with by DDR and Marchisio rather simply and Motta will be tasked to a man marking job on Rooney, which he's more than capable of doing while Barzagli and Bonucci will be tasked to deal with Welbeck.

While its true England have a distinct advantage when it comes to wideplay due to narrowness of Italy's system, this will only come into effect in the final 20 mins when Hodgson brings on Oxlade and Walcott as Young and Milner offer no threat what so ever and Balzaretti and Abate are very good defensively.

As far as an attacking threat goes Di Natale/Balotelli pace and movement combined with Cassano's artistry and intelligence will cause England untold problems as neither Lescott or Terry like playing against Pace or Intelligence.

The only major advantage Italy's system gives England is the possibility of 2 v 1 situations while Milner and Young are pretty poor and dont offer a great deal, the fullbacks behind them are the opposite both Johnson and Cole are great going forward and if England can get into 2 v 1 situations fairly frequently they will get joy.

Not only because of the 2 v 1 outcome but because it will cause the likes of Marchisio and DDR to come across to protect the fullback will give Rooney and Gerrard freedom to operate and cause damage... if England take advantage of this system fault then they can get joy and might win this way.

There is'nt really a great deal of system faults with England's system to exploit apart from the fact England's Midfield 2 plus Milner and and Rooney dropping into hole's to help them against Italy's narrow 4, Italy will probably have the advantage both defensively and offensively in the midfield.

But France, Sweden and Ukraine all had this advantage too but did'nt take advantage due to some solid defending from the English and poor finishing on their part.

The Key for Italy will be to get thier fullbacks in attacking positions and get Pirlo and Cassano combining as much as possible.

To create chances for the likes of Di Natale or Balotelli to make of with thier incisive running and unsettle the back 4 and the likes of DDR and Marchisio making runs beyond England's midfield but also stifling Gerrard's influence.

The Key for England will be, as i already touched on will be the get in 2 v 1 situations in wide areas to pull the midfielders out of position and get Roonay and Gerrard to influence the game in the middle.

As they will likely be shackled well by Marchisio, Motta and DDR but if England can use the extra width in thier game to drag them out wide then Gerrard and Roonay can possible stamp thier authority on the game and drive England to victory.

Should be a good game IMO and could go either way and i see Italy as slight favourites but it could go either way and see nothing which says one team would be massive favourites over the other.

In anycase a great breakdown Arq, i especially enjoyed the historic and squad criticism parts.

Superb points mole.

You are severely underestimating Parker Mole. Ok fine he may be devoid of basic skills. But... my point comes that Parker will be marking Pirlo more closely than anyone usually does. Yet Pirlo has shrugged of World Class markers. My focal point is that Pirlo is a slow man. And he inevitably tires near the end of the game as this also takes an effect on the Italian play. Parker as we know runs the whole game (and takes knees to faces) as from there Parker will mark out Pirlo thus halfing Italian midfield attack (since DDR and Marchisio will be more defensive today).

I see Gerrard getting the better of Marchisio and DDR both who will have such multitasking roles in attack and defense, therefore Stevie G will have the space to operate as in the 4-3-1-2, DDR and Marchisio will leaves gaps in central since they will be focusing on covering the flanks.

Motta won't be playing as it will be Monty as TQ which is even worse news since Monty isn't a TQ and lacks defensive skill when in an advanced position.

I agree on the impact sub effectiveness for England. As mentioned to Jay I predict this as the winning point for England.

Abate? Maybe, but Balzaretti like Maggio is naturally a WB who loves to get forward as I predict he will have a poor game due to leaving his position open and tiring near the end.

To make things clearer it will be Cassano/Balo. Neither have any exceptional pace in my opinion and as I mentioned to Jay Balo is a bad decision to start since he is inconsistent while Lescott knows him well enough. Lescott and Terry may be troubled by their craft yet I see them physically marking them out. Di Natale as an impact sub could cause trouble I agree.

Apt point on the 2 vs 1 as sadly Marchisio and DDR will be focused on assisting the fullbacks which will reduce the Italian attacking threat. Problem with this formation is that Balza and Abate cannot afford to bomb forward to much either as both will be pressed back into their own half and thus giving England the wing advantage and ultimately, the game advantage.

Italia may have the advantage in the central midfield yet since Marchisio and DDR will be defending more (due to this formation) it will give England the advantage for the central midfield to an extent as well. England will capitalize on this by pressing hard on a 'press prone' 4-3-1-2 since Italia will unfortunately focus more on possession. We know how the rest will go.

Read on my last conclusion on why England will win (after the RG reply)

But thank you very much for the kind words Mole and your contribution.

RealGunner wrote:Excellent overall Analysis Arq

However i must say that Goonerjay is spot on with his post, You are giving far too much credit to England. We honestly are not as good as people think, and i will say we rode our luck on many occasions.

First of all if we assess our Defense, we have let in 3 goals in 3 matches which might not be a lot but it does hide the fact that our defense got split apart many times in each of the group games. The way Ukraine got better of our defense, It is kinda unpleasant to imagine what the likes of Di Natale , Cassano and even Balotelli would do if they manage to get their game going. However the thing we are good at is Defending compactly while engaging in last ditch tackles. And the fact we defend deep, it might minimize the tactics which would allow Italian attackers to get behind.

However Hodgson knows how Italy plays, I am sure he will base the tactics which can counter the prandelli approach.

Coming to our midfield, I agree with Mole. Parker can't even mark someone like karl henry out of the game. Pirlo will destroy him So i really hope Gerrard goes head to head with Pirlo instead of Parker. Parker can try and get his head in the way of all the shots balotelli will take from outside the box. In any case, i can imagine Italy will have over 60% off the ball. Which suits us fine, We don't need the ball and one of the good thing about this team is that they are better when they don't have the ball. It is strange but its true from what i have seen.

The reason for this is that If you give the ball to Milner, he doesn't know what to do with it because his main role is to protect Johnson. Similiarly Parker's role is to pass it to gerrard or the fullbacks. Ashley young has been really poor imo he tries to do too much thinking the whole weight of the team is on him. Gerrard has been our best player and it shows because when he has the ball, he knows exactly what to do with it.

Our attack is primarily based on the front two strikers, Who i must admit have been excellent. Both welbeck and Carroll stepped up when we needed them. Rooney was rusty last game but having him raises the morale of the team so that will be good against Italy. I would hope We start Theo on the right because Wingers can be crucial to our tactics. However according to the latest reports, Hodgson will go with the same team so i really do wonder what's his thinking behind that.

In the end i would say that It wont be a high scoring match. Might be dull in some way because Italy will know we won't attack unless they do, so they will be cautious as our counter attacks have been kinda good. In a way, I think the Subs will decide the match.

Hoping for a great match in any case

Keeping a deep defense is what will actually trouble Italia. The 4-3-1-2 will give us more possession yet Italia won't be able to create many chances as it will be similar to Barca-Chelsea except England will look more comfortable in possession and will attack more than Chelsea. Italia will spray the ball around yet will be toothless to defend against the more wing-based counter's england will set up to break them.

Parker will get the better of Pirlo as the match goes on since Pirlo tires near the end while Gerrard will have gaps to exploit since DDR and Marchisio will be more focused on covering gaps on the flanks to give some width and impede Englands use of width.

Like I mentioned to Mole and Jay, England's game will be won by Wing-based counters as this will come into full effect when the impact subs for England are made.

Thanks for the great post RG.



Conclusion


The formation is pretty much 90% of how I predicted it.

You know whats the funny thing? Its the formation and line-up which is LITERALLY the WORST possible line-up Prandelli can do.

First is the 4-3-1-2 which will be ripped apart from a wider 4-4-2.

We know the 4312 NEEDS width provided by fullbacks and Abate may be in defense but provides little attack aside from his intelligent link-ups. This will give England an advantage to exploit and press Abate's timidness in attack. Balzaretti is NOT a LB but is a LWB. Either he will be confused on his role or he will naturally be forward so much that he will leave his positions open for England.

Bonnuci, is VERY inconsistent in the 4-man as there is a large disparity between his superb performances in a 3 man backline as compared to when he is almost lost in the 4 man backline. Another thing for English fans to relish.


As mentioned, DDR and Marchisio despite their impressive attacking and passing skills will be SO focused on helping the fullbacks and papering the cracks over English exploitation of the wings, it will leave Pirlo to do most of the work while he faces a tenacious Parker and Steven Gerrard. Not only the midfield battle will be won by England in the first half, but in the 2nd half when Italia (and Pirlo) will tire, England will capitalize massively on the wings and more so in the central department.

As mentioned, the attack will consist of a slow partnership of Balo and Cassano as despite their ingenuity and intelligence, we will have a TQ who isn't even a TQ feeding them along with the fact that Balo has been inconsistent throughout despite his moments of brilliance. The TQ is the part of the game which will be the downfall to Italia's game as Monty is best played deep along with he is known to not be able to combine with Pirlo whether deep or advanced. Biggest point is that the 4-3-1-2 is very reliant on the Trequartista and we all know how Monty will perform in this unfamiliar role.

Cheillini is out so we have Barza and Bonnuci who are not used to man marking since Cheillo does that job. Cheillini's absence is a MASSIVE blow.

If we played the 3-5-2 with DDR back as a Sweeper and Maggio and Balza as fullbacks etc I would have been very confident of Italia's chances.

Yet with the 4-3-1-2 we are LITERALLY playing RIGHT INTO their game. We are doing EXACTLY what old Roy wants.

I just cannot see Italia winning with this plan that the intelligent but frustrating Prandelli has put.

As mentioned, Roonay and Welbeck/Theo to score and end the game 2-0.

If Italia actually win (which they wont). I will happily accept any insult or degradation you throw at me.

England vs Germany is 100% happening. MARK MY POOR GRAMMATICAL WORDS.

Congratulations England.

Arq, I agree with you. italy will control the game but England will score and eventually win

Also, +1 for your sig. I don't have a clue why Germany's best CB doesn't start

Mad kudos to Arq.

I've been following Arrigo Sacchi's punditry very closly with Al Jazeera and he said something that I couldn't help but agree with.

He said that three things must be present for either team to progress in this order of importance:

1) Motivation
2) Fitness
3) Technique/approach

Considering Italy's fitness this could decide the game not tactics or anything like that.

When we look closer Italy's 3-5-2 only really excelled against Spain and they don't play traditional wingers. I personally don't think the 3-5-2 would fair well against England's wing play even though it makes sense in theory. Italy shouldn't make this game about the flanks I don't think they have the players to pull that off and by playing 3-5-2 they would put more emphasis on the wings than there needs to be.

The diamond could be better to defend against wingers because it can shift fom flank to flank to close down fullbacks or full back since only Glen Johnson supports a lot for England (remember Ashley Cole is not in top physical shape).

So I'm with Prandelli on this one the 3-5-2 only plays into England's hands. With a 4-3-1-2 the ''1'' will drop deep to support allowing space for Balo and Cassano and of course Pirlo to create.

As for England Milner and Rooney will be asked to stick to one of Italia's midfielders including of course Pirlo, the only player who won't be given such duties will be England's left winger. If Italy can shift their diamond to the left then I think they can take away England's only real outlet in open play.

But that might not be enough, like Sacchi I think fitness and focus decides this game, not tactics. England can score from a set piece, Italy too. Italy have shown they might not be 100% to play at a high level for 90 minutes, England like Jay said are not much better off.

This game will be tight and tense because both teams can't risk exposing their true weakness, their fitness.

aleumdance wrote: Physique does not only torble Italy

it troubles Italian sides in teh Champions league

udinese made theo walcott look like Ozil

Milan could not handle Oxlade

same story

We did struggle against Croatia in the second half

Kudos to all the posters

Surprising that we seemed much more fit than England, only place the English supposedly would beat us. How jolly.

What happened to England. Were they tired or do they lack talent?

Finished reading this earlier today.

Congrats btw Arq. You were by far the better side.

I'm very impressed with my analysis

My Analysis was spot on as always

"I ask, be patient in reading the whole article as I find you will agree with me that Italia are actually the underdogs here and will be bested by England even if it is ugly, or even if it is in penalties.

England will win and I am near 100% sure of this. Forget some of my earlier predictions, this is WHAT will happen. I can bet on it. "


Sorry Architecto but you were very, very wrong on your analysis. Was it an attempt for a reverse jinx.

Italy dominated in every aspect of the game. They should have won 4 or 5 to zero if they had finishers. Possession was 67% Italy on some sites. It wasn't even a game actually.