Who will win the Champions League this year?

Sshhh! I'm trying to jinx them!

Too soon to judge. Pre-January no one would've picked Barca as favourites.

Gil wrote:Too soon to judge. Pre-January no one would've picked Barca as favourites.

i did.

Bayern

Barca have everything they need to win, clear game plan, star players, defensive solidarity and offensive fire power.

However, I believe more in the fact no team has ever retained a CL.

I would pick Bayern by their midfield options are a bit weak for my taste. Either they are needed some place else (Lahm, Alaba), too young (Gaudinho), too old (Alonso) or not quite good enough (Rode). Thiago may get hurt again for all we know and its probably too much to rely so heavily on the new guy (Vidal) in Pep's mentally demanding philosophy.

I also dont think it helps its not totally clear who the best 11 are and how they fit together.

I truly dont know who wins. Not that I ever do.

Yes, we know you are clueless.

I believe the correct term is 'senile'.

Anyways, Bayern for me too.

Unique wrote:who picked man u.

I did.  

RED wrote:

Unique wrote:who picked man u.

I did.  

Rebaño Sagrado wrote:Yes, we know you are clueless.

Shut up and go listen to some mariachi at a quincianera after a long day on your construction job.

Think this is the year a dark horse will win it. My bet is on either Atleti or PSG

The Franchise wrote:

Rebaño Sagrado wrote:Yes, we know you are clueless.

Shut up and go listen to some mariachi at a quincianera after a long day on your construction job.

ffssss

It's CL or bust for Pep imo. Bayern has to win.

I think we can all agree that
1.Buyern/mehdrid will win the CL.
2. Barca will not retain the CL.
3. Missi/PenR7 will win the CL top scorer (by stat padding in the group stages).
4. Barca, buyern, mehdrid & FC whoever will be the CL semi-finalists.
5. Arsenal will not go past the round of 16.
6. Hazard and ibra will choke at the knock-out rounds.
7. MSN will score 80% of barcas CL goals.
8. Jiopsi to have a heart attack.
9. No english team will make the quaters.
10. The sky is blue.
(point 1,2,3,4,6 & 10 are already nailed on).

Stop

The Franchise wrote:

Rebaño Sagrado wrote:Yes, we know you are clueless.

Shut up and go listen to some mariachi at a quincianera after a long day on your construction job.

ffs

Spoiler:

PSG? City? Definitely not Barca/Madrid/Bayern

zizzle wrote:PSG? City? Definitely not Barca/Madrid/Bayern

I do have the same feeling, It's going to be someone new this year.

Although I'm hoping it will be Barca.

The Franchise wrote:
I would pick Bayern by their midfield options are a bit weak for my taste. Either they are needed some place else (Lahm, Alaba), too young (Gaudinho), too old (Alonso) or not quite good enough (Rode). Thiago may get hurt again for all we know and its probably too much to rely so heavily on the new guy (Vidal) in Pep's mentally demanding philosophy.

I also dont think it helps its not totally clear who the best 11 are and how they fit together.

I do not disagree, but just would like to point out that Pep has stopped rating Gaudino for some reason. The kid has been demoted to the 2nd team.

The new youngster in the mix is Joshua Kimmich who's 20.

The Franchise wrote:Barca have everything they need to win, clear game plan, star players, defensive solidarity and offensive fire power.

However, I believe more in the fact no team has ever retained a CL.

I would pick Bayern by their midfield options are a bit weak for my taste. Either they are needed some place else (Lahm, Alaba), too young (Gaudinho), too old (Alonso) or not quite good enough (Rode). Thiago may get hurt again for all we know and its probably too much to rely so heavily on the new guy (Vidal) in Pep's mentally demanding philosophy.

I also dont think it helps its not totally clear who the best 11 are and how they fit together.

I truly dont know who wins. Not that I ever do.

I believe more in the fact that it is extremely difficult to retain the CL back-to-back than some kind of curse. The re-naming of the tournament is a bit of a cop-out considering that there were some great teams that achieved the feat of winning the European Cup multiple times in a row. Nevertheless, it's not like this is a common occurrence in recent history...

You have to go back 25 years to 1988-89 and 1989-90 for the last back-to-back winner (Milan) and a further decade back to 1978–79 and 1979-80 to the second-most-recent back-to-back winner (Nottingham Forest).

Bizarrely, the 70s were the golden-age of back-to back winners. Nottingham Forest's double in the late 70s was immediately preceded by Liverpool's victories in 1976–77 and 1977–78, which was immediately preceded by Bayern Munich's three in a row in 1973-76; which was immediately preceded by Ajax's three in a row from 1970-73. Indeed, every single EC in the 70s was won by a team that had multiple EC victories that decade.

The 60s and 50s also see back-to-back victories for Inter and Benfica, and Real Madrid's 5 in a row.

European football has obviously become much more competitive at the top levels since the 50s. I would argue that the increase in competition has naturally resulted in a reduction in the number of back-to-back victories. Another factor behind this is likely to be that it is much more difficult to keep a team together for successive seasons in modern football. Big money transfers for top players who are in their prime to European competitors are no longer uncommon. This has made it even more difficult to keep an elite team together.

It is impossible to definitively draw a line where "old football" ends and "modern football" begins because modern football is continually changing and moving forward. However, what we can say is that going back-to-back post-1980 is, statistically, at least, a more difficult feat than it was in previous decades.

still way too early. what will be interesting is how contenders use the winter window. i'm of the opinion that the winter window has become underutilized. the big teams hardly use it for the sake of continuity, and lack of talent pool. however, once you've gone through september to january, this can be key in terms of making adjustments. i think whichever big team makes good winter moves has a solid chance. the thought that because you've been beasting from sept to jan,means you can replicate it in the latter stages can be misleading. i don't see any major small club upset for now...i'd have to see how the smaller clubs cope with domestic duties before assessing their ucl impact in latter stages

Forza wrote:I believe more in the fact that it is extremely difficult to retain the CL back-to-back than some kind of curse. The re-naming of the tournament is a bit of a cop-out considering that there were some great teams that achieved the feat of winning the European Cup multiple times in a row. Nevertheless, it's not like this is a common occurrence in recent history...

It's more about the format change than the name change. Back when each league only had one champion represent them the quality of the competition was lower so it was easier for teams to retain it or to teams from smaller leagues to occasionally get the title. Now that the top leagues get 4 teams in the competition the quality has increased and it's simply much harder to do.

This is true as well, to an extent. I would say that the early-middle stages of the tournament used to be easier under the old format. However, once a team got to the later stages of the European Cup tournament, there was always tough competition.

i'll go against the grain here. i don't think retaining the title is this tough act that drains the defending champs so much that they can't do it. i mean, its just a years gap. and a lot of times, the defending champs, if they're a strong side and not a selling club usually (not in all cases) play well the next season and go reasonably far in the competition. teams haven't retained the title due to minor issues like coming up against a better side, luck or lack of it, administrative issues within that
team itself

its not some curse, its not some change in quality, its nothing that needs to get theoretical. the 'raul madrid' sides that won 3 between 97/98 - 01/02 got to the semis in the years they didn't win, and just met a better bayern side; who madrid also had to eliminate in two out of the three years they won. utd that won in 07/08, where in the semis prior and got to the finals a year after to meet a better barcelona side. barcelona have been in a couple semis and lost close games they could have won to chelsea and inter. bayern got to to a two finals, won one and got to a semis. milan won it, got to the quarters, got to a final, got to a semis and won it again.

if defending champions all of a sudden became like porto or inter after the years they won it, then i'd buy into this "curse" or "quality" thing. but most are still very competitive and little details have seen them lose which is just the nature with sports. its very possible to retain the title especially since its not a four year interval, you need a little luck, but hey, other teams want to win too. sports doesn't have to be too technical or associated with curses and hoodoos

Pep should have won it back to back with Barca. Barca from 2008 - 2011 was way above everyone else in Europe (right now Bayern, Madrid, Barca are much closer). But after every CL win he went full retard. If he doesn't replace Eto'o with Ibra and Inter don't get Eto'o in the process, Barca win it in 09/10 again. That Inter side and van Gaal's Bayern side in the final were way inferior. Same in 11/12. Replacing a natural goalscorer like Villa with a winger like Sanchez who ended up scoring 3 CL goals in 3 seasons and promoting plebls like Cuenca and Tello to play in a CL semi-final and forcing Fabregas into the team which meant he had to play 3-4-3 to fit all midfielders in, all of that didn't improve the team at all, quite the opposite.

I wouldn't be surprised if the current Barca retains it though, injuries permitting. Enrique won't go full hipster to please Internet nerds with a brand new 2-1-1-0-2-1-2-3-5 formation and he won't replace Neymar with Cuadrado. So everything's fine. 5 CLs in a row incoming.