Re: The US Economy Thread

[Yuri Yukuv]

So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Also in the Japan news they've hit 0.5% inflation (a record in a few years) but employers are reluctant to adjust wages.

I am firmly behind yellen to be honest, she is the perfect candidate for this time and age. Had good judgement with greenspan and bernanke, while being the architect of recent positive changes.

0.5% without wage inflation is great and bad at the same time, great cuz it means if there is wage inflation we should easily get up to 2.0% but if not then this whole thing could crash. I cant follow Japan too much right now just because emerging markets seems like where its at. We have countries crashing and burning and we will have much more of that when tapering begins, it should be very interesting in three or four months when that happens.

[Swanhends]

So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Romer or Yellen

As an aside, at my internship I got a lot of free time so I spend most of it reading economics and market based news, and every time I make the mistake of scrolling down too far and catching a glimpse of the comments section its like getting acid poured into my eyes

Legions of goldbug/conspiracy theorist/abolish the fed types...and not one of them seems to have a proper understanding of inflation

[RealGunner]

So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Romer or Yellen

As an aside, at my internship I got a lot of free time so I spend most of it reading economics and market based news, and every time I make the mistake of scrolling down too far and catching a glimpse of the comments section its like getting acid poured into my eyes

Legions of goldbug/conspiracy theorist/abolish the fed types...and not one of them seems to have a proper understanding of inflation

tell me about it

I find it difficult to sleep at night after reading some of the comments on anything political/economics/religious

[BarrileteCosmico]

We have countries crashing and burning and we will have much more of that when tapering begins, it should be very interesting in three or four months when that happens.

Interesting. Why do you say that? Nearly every developing country's minister of finance has spoken out against QE and its effect on the dollar (S. Korea, Brazil come to my mind). I would assume they'd be happy to see the tapering begin (so long as it doesn't adversely affect US growth too much) and enjoy the benefits of a weaker currency.

[BarrileteCosmico]

So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Romer or Yellen

As an aside, at my internship I got a lot of free time so I spend most of it reading economics and market based news, and every time I make the mistake of scrolling down too far and catching a glimpse of the comments section its like getting acid poured into my eyes

Legions of goldbug/conspiracy theorist/abolish the fed types...and not one of them seems to have a proper understanding of inflation

Just saw this interview with Scott Sumner vs Typical Economics Pundit and he is exactly what I think of when I read those comments: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000186394

[Swanhends]

that man is the personification of the target of my rage.

[Yuri Yukuv]

We have countries crashing and burning and we will have much more of that when tapering begins, it should be very interesting in three or four months when that happens.

Interesting. Why do you say that? Nearly every developing country's minister of finance has spoken out against QE and its effect on the dollar (S. Korea, Brazil come to my mind). I would assume they'd be happy to see the tapering begin (so long as it doesn't adversely affect US growth too much) and enjoy the benefits of a weaker currency.

The reasons why such countries objected to QE are different from a cheapening dollar to imported inflation, but maybe most centrally hot money. As emerging markets are mostly capital starved they rely on the capital of others through debt, when there was interest rate differentials that was great. Developed world interest rates were going down while emerging markets were stable. That debt would be used to build infrastructure, business enterprises and other projects which would reinvigorate local economy and bring in hard currency. When interest rates in the US & Europe increase there will be less of an incentive to loan out to emerging markets and the newer more cost efficient projects will be in the developed world thus cutting both the flow of debt capital and the current account to emerging markets. That along with the slowing down in china as it rebalances to a consumer consumption economy will be devastating for the emerging markets. Last time I checked  emerging markets were underperforming the US by more than 25% this year, made some good money on NYSEARCA:EDZ and I think there will be more money to be made by the end of the year.

Long US durable goods such as autos/transport and housing as well as finance while shorting emerging markets and possibly gold will remain as the trade of the year me thinks.

[Swanhends]

Can someone explain to me in relatively simple terms the case for abolishing the FDA?

I've come to find many libertarian arguments convincing, but Im still not quite grasping how abolishing the FDA makes people safer (I think the efficiency argument is clear enough)

[Swanhends]

Been watching videos of Friedman and Sowell for like 36 hours now, I love listening to people who make me feel like a moron

[Yuri Yukuv]

Been watching videos of Friedman and Sowell for like 36 hours now, I love listening to people who make me feel like a moron

Wait, what? What made you change your mind like this?

[Swanhends]

Im not sure I follow?

[Yuri Yukuv]

Im not sure I follow?

Werent you the biggest progressive on this forum?

[Yuri Yukuv]

S&P 1,700 haters

[Swanhends]

Im not sure I follow?

Werent you the biggest progressive on this forum?

Socially, certainly - Economically I care mostly about the ends, the means are not quite as important

[BarrileteCosmico]

Check out this presentation by James Bullard, it has some great graphs and insight: http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bullard/pdf/BullardBrandeisMunicipalFinanceConference2August2013.pdf

One in particular on page 33 stands out to me. The balance sheet of the fed is not even the highest as a % of ngdp in its history, even after 3 rounds of QE.

[BarrileteCosmico]

Anyone got any ideas as to how to estimate "money supply" in the football world? It would be interesting to use it as a proxy for inflation since something like a CPI would be impossible to build due to the lack of constant goods.

[Kaladin]

Yeah i have to agree with BC, it would come in handy

[zizzle]

its almost impossible to estimate seeing how the amount depends on how deep the pockets of owners are and how much they are willing to invest. But if we're to use the FFP guidelines (lol) it makes it just a little but easier. We'll just add the Free Cash Flow for each team (free cash flow here will include all the amounts that UEFA dont calculate like youth investements) and then add 45m or whatever limit Uefa has to that amount. Of course we'll have to calculate how much of this 45 the team has used already (Inter has used all the amount for example). We'll also need to factor in the ability of each team to obtain cash AND we'll need to factor in whether they're willing to go into the red in the first place.


The GDP of the teams will be a much better measurement tool for inflation. Just add up the revenues of each team and you've got it. compare the growth of revenue with whatever anchor you'd like to use (% increase of average spent sounds reasonable) and you'll get the "real" inflation in the transfer market

[Swanhends]

Wait what?

People just use "inflated market" to express the idea that certain players are being sold for prices that are too high, obviously the transfer market is not actually inflated...

Am I missing something here?

[BarrileteCosmico]

Summer pulls name from consideration

Literally gasped at these news.

[BarrileteCosmico]

Wait what?

People just use "inflated market" to express the idea that certain players are being sold for prices that are too high, obviously the transfer market is not actually inflated...

Am I missing something here?

Well if you think of the more money that oil clubs, the EPL deal and as such are bringing to the player market it is definitely like an increase in the total amount of money in circulation, which should lead to inflated prices.

[Swanhends]

government shutdown possibly incoming, leadership of both parties making me want to smash my head against the wall

my opinion has been flipped upside down since the election

[I Have Mono]

government shutdown possibly incoming, leadership of both parties making me want to smash my head against the wall

my opinion has been flipped upside down since the election

Do you think we should just keep raising the debt ceiling everytime we reach it ? Or do you feel that maybe just once we should stop spending beyond our means to the tune of 1 trillion dollar a year deficits for the last 5 years ? that have the country 16 trillion dollars in debt ?

Do you realize that despite the fact that the military budget is out of control, even if we spent 0$ a year on our military we would strill run a 400 billion dollar deficit. Maybe the Military isn't the only problem rather it might have more to do with the social programs that politicans promise their communities and in essence buying people's votes is.
Just curious what your take on the whole situation is ?

And I'm not 100% up to date on the current years deficit because im being too lazy to look it up.

[Swanhends]

Do you think we should just keep raising the debt ceiling everytime we reach it ?

As compared to what? Refusing to raise the ceiling and defaulting on our debt? Are you serious?

Do you have any idea what the consequences of that are? It would be an absolute catastrophe.

Or do you feel that maybe just once we should stop spending beyond our means to the tune of 1 trillion dollar a year deficits for the last 5 years ? that have the country 16 trillion dollars in debt ?

I do believe we should stop spending beyond our means, but the debt ceiling does not permit the government to borrow more money. Raising the debt ceiling only enables the government to pay back money congress already borrowed.

[CBarca]

government shutdown possibly incoming, leadership of both parties making me want to smash my head against the wall

my opinion has been flipped upside down since the election

Can you elaborate on that? More just because I'm curious rather than having a particular issue with it, or anything like that.

Also, with the government shutting down, does anybody have any decent articles on the economic repercussions of this government shutdown? Or the many repercussions in general? Again, out of curiosity.

[I Have Mono]

No we definitely shouldn't allow the country to default on its debt. I understand what raising the debt level does sorry I didn't make that clear.

I just feel considering the circumstances a 400-500 billion deficit per year seems reasonable and do-able and feel that since the last time we raised the debt ceiling congress should have been constantly cutting cost in order to get us there.

I'm mad at both side like you, GOP for threating to let us default on our debts, and the Dems for refusing to cut any money off our debt.

The 2011 budget resolution or whatever you want to call it is complete bullshit 1.2 Trillion over 10 years really, 120 billion, 10% of our national deficit every year. The deal should be about 5x that and we should have been working towards that for the last year, only then would I feel comfortable raising the debt ceiling.

Were caught in a shitty position we have to raise the debt ceiling but at the same time that's just enabling what is currently going on and pushing and even larger national debt onto our generations shoulders(not sure how old you are) but our parents generation of politicians are *bleep* us.

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