A.C. MILAN v JUVENTUS

League Table

First, the disappointing reality of our season until now...

1. Juve: 32 pts
2. Inter: 28 pts
3. Fiorentina: 27 pts
4. Napoli: 27 pts
5. Lazio: 23pts
6. Roma: 20 pts
7. Catania: 19 pts
8. Atalanta: 18 pts
9. Parma: 17 pts
10. Udinese: 16 pts
11. Cagliari: 16 pts
12. Milan: 15 pts
...

Whilst our draw at Napoli was generally perceived as a positive result for the team (bar the blunders that cost us the goals in the first half), it has seen us slip a few positions down to 12th. If results go our way, & we win v Juve, we could see ourselves in a much more respectable 8th position, within striking distance of the Europa League places.

Recent Form

MILAN
Nov 21, 2012 Anderlecht 1 - AC Milan 3 UCL
Nov 17, 2012 SSC Napoli 2 - AC Milan 2 Serie A
Nov 11, 2012 AC Milan 1 - Fiorentina 3 Serie A
Nov 6, 2012 AC Milan 1 - Malaga 1 UCL
Nov 3, 2012 AC Milan 5 - Chievo 1 Serie A

This game follows a solid performance against Anderlecht, where our attack was spectacular, but our defence was still flimsy. Individual blunders were to blame for going 2-0 down at Napoli, but the Pharaoh showed great resilience and spirit to lead our team back to parity. A Jovetic-less Fiorentina swept us aside with ease, primarily due to the dominance of their 5-man midfield - Allegri has to learn from this game if we are to stand any chance against Juve. Malaga grabbed a draw at the San Siro where yet another defensive mistake cost us for the goal. Nevertheless, credit must be given to the Spanish side, who scored first and played quite well. Only when Milan played Chievo did we truly look like a side that is unfettered by mid-table mediocrity. All guns fired and the team from Verona were dispatched with ease. Note zero clean sheets in 5 games.

JUVE
Nov 20, 2012 Juventus 3 - Chelsea FC 0 UCL
Nov 17, 2012 Juventus 0 - Lazio 0 Serie A
Nov 10, 2012 Pescara 1 - Juventus 6 Serie A
Nov 7, 2012 Juventus 4 - FC Nordsjælland 0 UCL
Nov 3, 2012 Juventus 1 - FC Internazionale 3 Serie A

Juve are coming off a great win in the Champions League against Chelsea. Prior to that, Lazio parked the bus to get a draw in Serie A. Pescara and Nordsjælland were simply annihilated as the scorelines show. Those games were a reaction to the previous match - Inter are the only team to beat Juventus in Serie A since the start of last season. Note 3 clean sheets in 5 games.

Head to Head

Mar 20, 2012 Juventus 2 - AC Milan 2 Coppa Italia‎
Feb 25, 2012 AC Milan 1 - Juventus 1 Serie A
Feb 8, 2012 AC Milan 1 - Juventus 2 Coppa Italia‎
Oct 2, 2011 Juventus 2 - AC Milan 0 Serie A
Aug 21, 2011 AC Milan 2 - Juventus 1 Friendly

Defence/Attack Rankings

MILAN
We have the 9th best defence in Serie A with 18 goals conceded.
7 of those goals have come at home giving us the 11th best defence in home games.

We have the 6th best attack in the league, behind all of the top clubs in the league standings (Roma, Juve, Inter, Fiorentina, Napoli - in that order), bar Lazio who sit 5th in the league with the 7th best attack.

Our overall goal difference is +2, the 7th best in the league.

Summary: Our attack is potent, and on it's own it would have us in the Europa League placings. Our centre-back options are deplorable and there is nothing that can fix it until January.

JUVE
They have the no. 1 defence in Serie A with only half as many goals conceded (9).
Away, they also have the best defence in the league with 4 goals of those 9 conceded outside Juventus Stadium.

They have the 2nd best attack in the league with 29 goals scored (1 behind Roma).
They have the best attack in the league away from home, scoring 16 goals on their travels.

Juve's overall goal difference is +20, Serie A's best. Behind them is daylight and then Fiorentina on +13.

Summary: Juve are balanced and high quality in all areas.

Injuries/Suspensions

MILAN

~ Injuries ~
9 Pato (in doubt, will likely play)
14 Strasser (reportedly fit for this game, unlikely to be played though)
22 Didac Vila (reportedly fit for this game, unlikely to be played though)
15 Mesbah (may be back for the game after this)
77 Antonini (may be back for the game after this)
12 Traoré (may be back for the game after this)
23 Ambrosini (may be back for the game after this)
20 Abate (may be back on the 16th matchday)
25 Bonera (may be back until the 17th matchday)
4 Muntari (Won't be back until January)

~ Suspensions ~
None

~ Suspended for next game if they get 1 more yellow card ~
De Jong, Pazzini, Yepes, Mexes

JUVE

~ Injuries ~
3 Chiellini (in doubt, will probably play)
19 Bonucci (in doubt, will probably play)

~ Suspensions ~
Conte

~ Suspended for next game if they get 1 more yellow card ~
Chiellini

Probable Formations
Note that this is who I expect will be played, not necessarily what I would like to see:

MILAN: 4-2-3-1
JUVENTUS: 3-5-2
Probable Benches

MILAN
Amelia, Gabriel, Acerbi, Zapata, Nocerino, Boateng, Niang, Pazzini, Robinho

JUVE
Storari, Rubinho, Lucio, Lichtsteiner, Caceres, Pogba, Giaccherini, Pepe, Bendtner, Matri, Quagliarella

Tactical Notes

MILAN
- Allegri has been experimenting with a 4-3-3 lately with poor results. When he reverts to a 4-2-3-1, the team plays much better.
- Mexes will start after a robust performance against Anderlecht, which he capped with that overhead goal.
- Bonera is injured, Zapata is out of favour. That leaves Acerbi and Mexes to fight for the other CB spot. I'd bet on Allegri choosing the experienced Yepes. The Colombian will likely put in a more confident and energetic performance than Acerbi could in such a huge game.
- Boateng has started the last few matches, however, he has not had the impact that Allergi hoped for on his return after being dropped earlier in the season. Hence, Boateng will likely be benched once more as the coach can't afford to have this primadonna not pulling his weight against Juve's formidable 5-man midfield.
- If Allegri plays 4-3-3, Emanuelson will probably lose his spot to Nocerino.
- If Allegri plays 4-2-3-1, Emanuelson faces strong competition from Robinho for the starting place on the right wing.
- Bojan is best in the AM role, and I think Allegri has realised that after another of his failed experiments.
- Pato should start up-front, although his injury troubles might mean that Pazzini will get a chance instead and Pato will come on off the bench like in the Anderlecht game.
- Milan's tactical plans will consist of the following...
1. De Sciglio and Constant will harass Asamoah and Isla and try to make them accountable by getting in behind them. Crosses are becoming a more frequent feature of our game.
2. Pato will look to draw defenders away from SES and Emanuelson.
3. Montolivo will look to link up with Bojan as often as possible.
4. Pirlo will be marked zonally. Emanuelson might tag him when he acts as a deep-lying playmaker. When Pirlo moves forward, he will become the responsibility of De Jong.
5. SES will drift centrally on occasion for any one of these reasons...
i) to create space for himself
ii) to get on the ball more
iii) confuse defenders
iv) Receive a pass from the opposite wing - usually De Sciglio.
v) get on the end of a through ball.

JUVE
- The question marks over the fitness of Bonucci and Chiellini mean that Lucio and Caceres might take their places. I don't think Marrone would get a shot in such a big game.
- Lichtsteiner is equal odds to start instead of Isla.
- Giovinco faces strong competition from Quagliarella for his spot.
- Juve has a few main tactical moves...
1. They will look to exploit Milan's weakness on the wings. Vucinic and Giovinco will work with Isla and Asamoah, respectively.
2. Distribute to Pirlo as often as possible.
3. Chiellini will carry the ball out of defence whenever Pirlo is man-marked (as Chelsea found out).
4. Vidal will move forward and occupy the space at the top of the box.
5. When pressured, Juve will look for the long ball clearance over the top of the Milan defence to a striker on the offside line or at the edge of their half.

Outlook
Both teams have momentum, although Juve have obviously been more consistent than Milan. El Shaarawy and Montolivo are going to have to be in inspired form to crack open a tough Juve defence. Conversely, Juve will need to show that they can take their chances against Milan's slow centre-back pairing.

Forza Milan!